Gold Price Rises 3.34% on Nov 4, 2026 as Democrats Sweep Congress

Key takeaways

• The gold price rose 3.34% on Wednesday. Kitco data show spot gold (XAU/USD) at $4,060.50 an ounce at 16:28 New York time (21:28 UTC) on November 4, 2026, up $131.10 on the day, after a session high of $4,071.40.
• The dollar slid after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, Reuters reported in a story carried by Kitco. The US Dollar Index fell 0.36% to 101.505 by 21:21 UTC, Yahoo Finance data show.
• December COMEX gold futures last traded at $4,075.00 at 21:21 UTC, up 3.42% from Tuesday's $3,940.40 settlement, according to Yahoo Finance data.
• The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.90% from 4.95%, and the 10-year real yield eased to 2.64% from 2.65%, official US Treasury data show.
• Silver outpaced gold: December COMEX silver futures rose 5.61% to $52.370, and spot palladium jumped 8.08% to $990.00.

Session recap

Gold recovered all of Tuesday's loss and more (see our November 3 gold brief) as US midterm results came in overnight. For other regions, see Asian and global market closes. The move began in Asian and European hours: spot gold was up 3% at $4,046.74 at 12:34 UTC, on track for its biggest daily gain since August 19, after touching $4,050.99, its highest since October 29, Reuters reported in a story carried by Kitco. The metal held above $4,000 through the US morning. Kitco's spot quotes ranged from $3,919.00 to $4,071.40 over the session.

Spot metals are Kitco New York bids at 16:28 local time (EST), with changes as shown by Kitco against the previous close; Kitco's change implies a prior spot gold close of $3,929.40, slightly above the $3,923.30 bid in our Tuesday brief, which was taken before the end of that session. Futures prices are last trades, not official settlements; changes are measured from the November 3 values recorded by Yahoo Finance ($3,940.40 for gold, $49.587 for silver, 101.87 for the dollar index). CNBC separately reported front-month gold futures at $4,073, up 3.4%. Treasury yields are published to two decimals, based on quotes near 15:30 New York time; changes compare with November 3. LBMA Gold Price benchmarks were not publicly available at the time of writing.

Kitco's spot silver bid was $52.12 at 21:28 UTC, up 4.92%, back above the $50 level it lost on Tuesday. Platinum and palladium rose even faster than silver in percentage terms.

What drove it

Democrats win Congress, the dollar falls

The main trigger was political. Democrats won majorities in the Senate and the House, according to the Reuters gold report carried by Kitco. "The elections appear to have boosted gold prices as investors become more worried about the fiscal outlook," Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said in that report. A separate Reuters currency report on Kitco said the dollar index fell to a one-month low of 101.39 during the day, as investors worried that a Democratic Congress could bring tighter rules for artificial intelligence and more opposition to data centres, which could slow growth and reduce the need for rate hikes. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers paying in other currencies.

Nominal yields fell, real yields barely moved

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.90%, and the 2-year to 4.58%, Treasury data show. The 10-year real yield, the return on inflation-protected Treasuries, slipped just 0.01 point to 2.64%, while the 5-year real yield rose to 2.39% from 2.35%. That mix suggests Wednesday's gain owed more to the dollar and fiscal worries than to a clear fall in the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.

Fed hike expectations stayed in place

Traders still saw a December rate increase by the Federal Reserve as more likely than not, Reuters reported, citing the CME FedWatch tool. Hussain said a hawkish Fed and gold's growing correlation with equities could limit further gains, the report added. Private payroll data also pointed to a firm labour market: ADP said US companies added 86,000 jobs in October, after 90,000 in September, beating forecasts, Kitco reported. Kitco said the figure supported the view that the Fed still has room to raise rates. Our explainer on gold's slide below $4,000 covers how hike expectations weighed on the metal in October.

Oil eased

Oil fell 1.3% to $102.30 a barrel during the day, the Reuters currency report said, without naming the contract. Softer oil can ease inflation worries, but the move was small next to the dollar's drop.

Political & policy watch

• US midterms. Democrats flipped Republican Senate seats in states including Kansas, Ohio and Texas, a Reuters election report carried by Kitco said. In that report, President Donald Trump wrote on social media that he "wasn't on the Ballot." Some races, including Senate seats in Michigan and Minnesota, had not been called at the time of that report. Our analysis of what the midterm results mean for ASEAN markets covers the regional angle.
• Treasury refunding. The US Treasury will sell $125 billion of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities next week and dropped "at least" from its guidance that coupon auction sizes will stay unchanged "for the next several quarters," Reuters reported in a story carried by Kitco. Analysts read that as opening the door to size changes in 2027.
• Iran. Iran and the United States remain far from a deal to end their war, and Trump has not ruled out resuming US combat operations, the Reuters gold report said. Bullquill has not independently verified the status of those talks.

What to watch next

• November 5, 13:30 UTC: US weekly jobless claims and third-quarter productivity, according to Kitco.
• November 6, 13:30 UTC: US October non-farm payrolls report, according to Kitco and Reuters.
• Next week: $125 billion of US Treasury 3-year, 10-year and 30-year auctions, Reuters reported.
• December 8–9: The Fed's next policy meeting, according to Kitco. See our central bank meeting calendar.
• Each London business day: LBMA Gold Price AM (10:30 London) and PM (15:00 London) benchmarks.

Risk checklist for readers

• Election moves can fade. Prices that jump on a political result can reverse once final counts and policy details are known.
• Separate the dollar from real yields. On Wednesday the dollar fell sharply while the 10-year real yield barely moved; knowing which factor is driving gold helps explain the move.
• Jobs data can shift Fed bets. Friday's payrolls report could change expectations for a December rate decision within minutes.
• Silver and the platinum group are more volatile. They often move further than gold in percentage terms, in both directions.
• Different feeds, different closes. Spot and futures prices use different cut-off times, so reported daily changes differ.
• Local prices also depend on currencies. For buyers in Indonesia, Thailand or elsewhere in ASEAN, the local gold price moves with both XAU/USD and the exchange rate.
• Use primary data. The Federal Reserve, US Treasury, CME Group, LBMA and the World Gold Council publish the figures behind most headlines.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.