US midterm results: House leans Democratic, dollar dips in Asia

Key takeaways

• As of 01:14 UTC on Nov 4 (8:14 p.m. ET on Nov 3), no network had projected control of either the House or the Senate in the US midterm elections. Shortly before 8 p.m. ET, CNBC's Election Desk rated House control as "leans Democratic".
• Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff was projected to win re-election in Georgia (AP, CBS News and NBC News), and Democrat Mark Warner was projected to keep his Virginia seat (CBS News and NBC News).
• The US dollar index stood at 101.581 at 01:03 UTC on Nov 4, down 0.28% from its previous close of 101.867, according to Yahoo Finance data. The Singapore dollar, Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit were 0.12% to 0.15% firmer against the dollar by about 01:14 UTC.
• S&P 500 E-mini futures were down 0.49% at 7,559.75 at 01:04 UTC. ASEAN stock markets had not yet reacted at the time of writing; their last sessions, on Nov 3, closed before any polls shut.

Early returns from Tuesday's US midterm elections reached Southeast Asia before Wednesday's market open, with Democrats winning the first Senate projections and CNBC leaning the House their way, while the dollar slipped in Asian trading. Both chambers remained uncalled at 01:14 UTC, so every control scenario below is still provisional.

This update follows our guide to when US midterm results arrive in Jakarta, Bangkok, Singapore and Manila. It covers what has been decided, what has not, and how ASEAN currencies and US futures moved in the first hours of the count.

US midterm results: who controls the House and Senate?

House of Representatives

All 435 House seats are on the ballot, and a majority needs 218. Going into election day, Republicans held 218 seats plus an independent who normally votes with them, while Democrats held 214 and two seats were vacant, CBS News reported in its live blog. ING strategists noted that Democrats needed a net gain of four seats.

NBC News' results page showed 25 House seats called for Democrats and 12 for Republicans at 8:11 p.m. ET (01:11 UTC), with 398 seats still uncalled. CNBC's Election Desk rated control "leans Democratic" and estimated that Democrats would win at least 200 seats and Republicans at least 160 once all races are decided. That is a rating, not a projection of the final majority.

Senate

Republicans entered the election with a 53-47 Senate majority, CBS News reported, and 35 of the 100 seats are being contested. Because a 50-50 split leaves control with the vice president's tie-breaking vote, Democrats need 51 seats, a net gain of four. NBC News' tally at 8:14 p.m. ET (01:14 UTC) showed 41 Democratic seats, including 34 not up this year, and 31 Republican seats, all of them not up this year.

ING's Nov 3 FX Daily note named Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio and Texas among the Senate toss-ups. None of those races had been called by 01:14 UTC.

Races called so far

The table lists Senate and governor projections from CBS News, NBC News and AP (as reported by CNBC) up to 8:14 p.m. ET on Nov 3 (01:14 UTC Nov 4).

All seven Senate seats called so far were already held by Democrats, so the calls do not yet change the Senate arithmetic. The races that decide control, including Texas (Republican Paxton against Democrat Talarico), Michigan (Republican Rogers against Democrat El-Sayed), Maine (Republican Senator Collins against Democrat Jackson) and the Ohio special election (Republican Husted against Democrat Brown), were still being counted, NBC News' results page showed. NBC News listed the Florida special Senate race between Republican Moody and Democrat Nixon as too close to call, and its Decision Desk rated New Hampshire as leaning toward Democrat Pappas over Republican Sununu without a formal call.

How the dollar, ASEAN currencies and US futures moved on Nov 4

The first market moves came in currencies and US index futures, because ASEAN stock exchanges were still closed when the early calls arrived. The figures below are Yahoo Finance quotes; currency quotes are indicative interbank rates, not central bank fixings.

A lower USD/SGD, USD/THB or USD/MYR reading means the Asian currency gained against the dollar. The moves were small, and Bullquill could not attribute them solely to the election: US futures had already turned lower by 7:34 p.m. ET, when CNBC reported Dow futures down 235 points (0.5%), S&P 500 futures down about 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures down about 0.9%. CNBC also reported that JPMorgan had estimated a Democratic "blue wave" could weigh on the S&P 500 by about half a percent on Wednesday.

Where ASEAN markets stood before the results

ASEAN markets went into the vote under pressure from other forces. Indonesia's IDX Composite (IHSG) fell 3.78% to 4,904.29 on Nov 3, according to Yahoo Finance data, a slide tied mainly to MSCI's review of Indonesia's market status; our report on the IHSG falling below 5,000 has the details. Singapore's Straits Times Index closed at 5,269.29 on Nov 3, down 0.65% from 5,303.83, Yahoo Finance data showed.

Bank Indonesia's JISDOR reference rate was Rp18,148 per dollar on Nov 3, slightly stronger than Rp18,161 on Nov 2. In Malaysia, the ringgit closed at 4.0735/0775 against the dollar at 6 p.m. local time on Nov 3, from 4.0695/0735 on Monday, Malay Mail reported, citing Bernama. US 10-year Treasury yields closed Nov 3 at 4.952%, up from 4.894% a day earlier, according to Yahoo Finance data.

Seoul offered an early read on regional risk appetite on Wednesday: the KOSPI opened sharply higher on a chip rebound, as covered in our KOSPI report.

Why the result matters for ASEAN: dollar, yields and fiscal gridlock

For ASEAN investors, the main channel from Washington is the dollar. ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner wrote on Nov 3 that "a blue sweep can put some pressure on the dollar," but added that they doubted it would trigger a structural shift. They expected a split Congress, with Republicans keeping the Senate and Democrats taking the House, to have a neutral or slightly positive effect on the dollar, and said the greenback continued to respond mainly to the Federal Reserve. ING also flagged that markets could price in more risk of gridlock over government funding and the debt ceiling.

FXStreet reported on Nov 3, citing ING, that the bank saw possible short-term pressure if Democrats won both the House and the Senate. A weaker dollar usually eases pressure on currencies such as the rupiah, which MUFG strategists said held above 18,000 per dollar while Indonesia's 10-year bond yield rose to 7.7%, according to a separate FXStreet report. MUFG said it remained cautious on the rupiah and that a Bank Indonesia rate hike could not be ruled out at the Nov 18 policy meeting.

Geopolitics is a second channel. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia, told Bernama that traders were weighing "concerns over a possible renewed US attack on Iran following the US midterm elections," Malay Mail reported. Oil prices feed directly into fuel subsidy costs and inflation in several ASEAN economies.

Tariffs are the third channel investors are asking about. Bullquill found no published bank or brokerage note that quantified how a change in congressional control would alter US tariffs on ASEAN exporters, so this article does not estimate one.

What to watch next

• Remaining Senate calls: Texas, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Alaska, Nebraska, New Hampshire and Florida were still open at 01:14 UTC. Final results in close races can take days.
• ASEAN sessions on Nov 4: Singapore's regular session runs from 01:00 UTC (09:00 SGT), according to Yahoo Finance trading-period data, so Wednesday's ASEAN closes will be the first full stock-market reaction. Our ASEAN Close tracker records how each market finishes.
• Indonesia data: third-quarter GDP on Thursday, Nov 5, and foreign exchange reserves on Friday, Nov 6, ahead of Bank Indonesia's Nov 18 meeting, according to MUFG via FXStreet.
• US jobs data: Friday's US jobs report, which Bank Muamalat's Afzanizam named alongside the midterms as a driver for the ringgit.

What it means

As of 01:14 UTC on Nov 4, the US midterms had produced early Democratic Senate wins in seats the party already held and a House rating that favoured Democrats, but no confirmed majority in either chamber. The first market response was a modestly weaker dollar and slightly firmer Singapore dollar, baht and ringgit, alongside lower US stock futures. Analysts cited here expect any dollar effect from the election to be limited compared with the Federal Reserve, while Indonesia's market remains driven mainly by MSCI and Bank Indonesia. Readers can follow updates on the US Midterm Elections 2026 page.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.