Gold Price Falls 1.13% on Oct 29, 2026 as Strong GDP Lifts Hike Bets

Key takeaways

• The gold price fell 1.13% on Thursday. Kitco data at 17:00 New York time show spot gold (XAU/USD) ended October 29, 2026 at $4,020.50 an ounce, down $46.10. Trading Economics showed $4,021.31, down 1.14%.
• US third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, up from 2.2% in the second quarter and above forecasts, Kitco reported. Higher hike expectations at the Fed outweighed a softer dollar.
• The September PCE price index rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% on the year, and core PCE rose 3.1% year on year, according to Kitco and Trading Economics.
• December COMEX gold futures last traded at $4,033.30, down 0.45%. December silver futures fell 2.31% to $52.220, Yahoo Finance data show.
• Treasury yields eased: the 10-year yield slipped to 4.98% from 5.05%, and the 10-year real yield fell to 2.63% from 2.67%, official Treasury data show.

Session recap

Gold's three-day winning streak ended the day after the Federal Reserve held rates (see our October 28 gold brief). For other regions, see Asian and global markets today. Most of the losses came before the US data. Spot gold was down 0.8% at $4,035.28 at 11:21 GMT, according to a Reuters report carried by Kitco. It slipped further after the 12:30 GMT GDP and inflation releases. FXStreet reported a session low of $4,005, just above the $4,000 mark.

Spot gold is Kitco's New York bid at 17:00 local time, compared with a previous close of $4,066.60. Futures changes are measured from Wednesday's closing values recorded by Yahoo Finance ($4,051.60 for gold, $53.457 for silver). Those values were taken at an earlier cut-off than spot, which is why futures show a smaller fall. Gold futures traded between $4,016.30 and $4,081.70, and silver futures between $52.025 and $54.445. Kitco's spot silver was $52.04, down 3.35%. Treasury yields are published to two decimals, based on quotes near 15:30 New York time; changes compare with October 28. LBMA Gold Price benchmarks were not publicly available at the time of writing, and the sources reviewed carried no new ETF or central bank purchase data.

Reuters, in its report carried by Kitco, said gold was on course for a second straight monthly loss, and that silver, platinum and palladium were also heading for a second monthly decline. Platinum fell 2.9% to $1,493.71 at 11:21 GMT, according to the same report.

What drove it

Strong growth kept a December hike in view

The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate showed real GDP growing at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter, Kitco reported. Kitco and FXStreet cited a 3.2% forecast, while Kitco's morning report cited 3.1%; either way, growth beat expectations. Consumer spending rose 3.8% and fixed investment 19.4%, according to Kitco's morning report. Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000 from 195,000, FXStreet reported. "The U.S. economy is on fire right now," Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, told Kitco. FXStreet linked gold's slide to the strong GDP data, which supported expectations of a Fed hike. Gold pays no interest, so higher rates raise the cost of holding it.

Inflation stayed well above target

The September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.5% on the month, its largest monthly gain in six months, and 3.6% on the year, up from 3.4% in August, according to Kitco's morning report. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, in line with expectations. Trading Economics reported the same headline and core figures. Before the release, Bybit chief market analyst Han Tan said gold "may be dragged back into sub-$4,000 levels if the PCE figures exceed market expectations," according to the Reuters report carried by Kitco. Traders continued to price a December rate hike, Reuters reported via Kitco, citing CME FedWatch.

A softer dollar and lower yields did not help

Gold fell even though its usual headwinds eased. The dollar index slipped 0.25% to 101.93, Yahoo Finance data show. Treasury's end-of-day figures show the 10-year real yield, the return after inflation on inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS), down to 2.63% from 2.67%. The 10-year nominal yield eased to 4.98%. On Thursday, rate-hike expectations outweighed these normally supportive moves. Our Fed October meeting explainer covers the debate inside the committee.

Oil eased on Iran diplomacy

Oil prices fell on hopes for peace talks after US Vice President JD Vance wrote to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei, Reuters reported via Kitco. Kitco's morning report put Brent near $114.05 a barrel in early US trading. Lower oil can ease inflation fears, but it also reduces demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risk. Tan said that if oil benchmarks "revisit $120 and beyond," gold would likely post "a fresh year-to-date low," according to the same Reuters report. Our explainer on how oil price shocks hit inflation and rates sets out that chain.

Silver fell harder

December silver futures fell 2.31%, compared with a 0.45% fall in December gold futures. Silver is more closely tied to industrial demand and tends to swing more than gold in both directions.

What it means

Analysis. Thursday's data pointed to an economy still running hot, with inflation above the Fed's 2% target. That kept a December hike in play and weighed on gold, even as the dollar and real yields eased. Spot gold briefly approached $4,000, the level Bybit's Han Tan flagged before the inflation data.

Political & policy watch

• The ECB held rates. The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.5% after two hikes this year, Euronews reported. Euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September. President Christine Lagarde will step down on February 7, 2027, about nine months before her term ends.
• French bond stress. France's 10-year yield was around 5% on Thursday, after rising above that level last week for the first time since 2002, according to Euronews. On France's fiscal problems, Lagarde said "the primary and first solution lies at home in France," the outlet reported.
• Fed and the curve. The Fed upgraded its assessment of the economy to "strong" from "solid," Reuters reported via Kitco. The report said long-dated Treasury yields rose after Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference on Wednesday. Nuveen's Anders Persson linked the long end to "the concerns around pressure on the fiscal outlook."
• US-Iran diplomacy. Vance sought renewed talks with Iran, Reuters reported via Kitco. According to Kitco's morning report, a senior Iranian official called a new Qatari framework unacceptable. Markets remain wary of renewed tension after the US midterms, the Reuters report said.
• Gold market structure. London Bullion Market Association members broadly support exploring tokenised gold but want legal certainty and safeguards, Reuters reported via Kitco. The response came in a consultation by Britain's financial regulator.

What to watch next

• October 30: Bank of Japan policy decision, according to Kitco, and the last trading day of October, when gold's monthly result will be set. See our central bank meeting calendar.
• November 3: US midterm elections.
• December 8–9: The Fed's next policy meeting, according to Kitco, where traders expect a hike.
• February 7, 2027: Christine Lagarde's planned exit from the ECB.
• Each London business day: LBMA Gold Price AM (10:30 London) and PM (15:00 London) benchmarks.

Risk checklist for readers

• Data days move fast. GDP and PCE came out together at 12:30 GMT, and prices can swing sharply within minutes of such releases.
• Different feeds, different closes. Spot and futures prices use different cut-off times, so their daily changes can differ widely, as they did on Thursday.
• Drivers can conflict. A weaker dollar and lower real yields usually support gold, but rate expectations can outweigh them on a given day.
• Read the right inflation number. Headline PCE includes energy; core PCE excludes food and energy and is the figure the Fed watches most closely.
• Local prices also depend on currencies. For buyers outside the US, the local gold price moves with both XAU/USD and the exchange rate.
• Leverage magnifies losses. Futures and margin products can force selling in fast markets.
• Use primary data. The Federal Reserve, US Treasury, CME Group, LBMA and the World Gold Council publish the figures behind most headlines.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.