Philippine peso record low: 64.17 per dollar despite BSP hike

Key takeaways

• The Philippine peso closed at a record low of P64.17 per US dollar on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, the first close beyond the 64 level, according to Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP) data reported by Philstar.
• It recovered 14.5 centavos to P64.025 on Wednesday, 28 October, after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the government would defend the currency and urged the public: "Don't panic."
• The slide came less than a week after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) surprised markets with a 50 basis point hike that took its policy rate to 5.50%.
• Oil-driven import costs, a record $9.087 billion balance of payments (BOP) deficit for January to September, and a Federal Reserve that is still debating hikes are the pressures most often cited by officials and economists.

Higher oil import bills, a record external payments gap and a firm US dollar pushed the peso past 64 per dollar this week, even after the BSP's largest rate hike since February 2023. The currency ended a seven-session run of record closes on 28 October, Philstar reported, but remained just above P64.

Philippine peso record low: how the slide unfolded

The move from 63 to 64 took about a week and a half. The peso finished at P62.985 on Friday, 16 October, then broke to a record P63.09 on Monday, 19 October, BusinessMirror reported. It kept setting new lows through the BSP's policy meeting on 22 October and into the following week.

On Monday, 26 October, the peso weakened 33.5 centavos to P63.95, using BAP data, according to Philstar. The Manila Times said that close marked the fifth consecutive trading day at a record low. Philstar counted it as the 32nd record-low close of 2026.

On Tuesday, 27 October, the currency closed at P64.17 after touching P64.20 during the session, Philstar reported. A day later it firmed to P64.025.

Pesos per US dollar, BAP closing rates as reported by the outlets named. A higher number means a weaker peso. The 20 October close is not shown because it was not confirmed from an opened source. Data as of the 28 October close.

From 62.985 on 16 October to 64.17 on 27 October, the dollar rose about 1.9% against the peso. Over a longer window, the Daily Tribune reported that the 22 October close of P63.52 was about 9% weaker than the peso's close on 28 February.

Why is the Philippine peso falling?

1. Oil and the import bill

The Philippines relies on imported fuel, so dearer crude raises demand for dollars. President Marcos tied the latest drop to oil directly, calling it "an effect of still the rising prices of oil," Philstar reported. BusinessMirror said import payments for January to August reached $105.60 billion, up 19.1% from a year earlier, driven by fuel, production inputs, commodities and capital equipment. For the wider oil backdrop, see our explainer on how oil price shocks hit inflation and interest rates and our latest note on WTI crude's recent moves.

2. A record balance of payments deficit

BSP data reported by BusinessMirror show a BOP deficit of $9.087 billion for January to September 2026, the widest year-to-date gap on record. September alone posted a $3.144 billion deficit, compared with an $82 million surplus a year earlier. The BSP's full-year forecast is a $9.2 billion deficit, so the nine-month gap is already close to it.

The same report put gross international reserves at a three-year low at the end of September, just under $100 billion. Strong remittances, business process outsourcing revenue and tourism receipts were not enough to offset the import bill, net portfolio outflows and weaker foreign direct investment, according to BusinessMirror.

3. The Fed and the dollar

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4% on 28 October in a 10–2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a quarter-point hike, Nation Thailand reported. Before the meeting, a forex trader told Philstar that "the risk to 64 remains intact" if the Fed turned more hawkish. The same trader linked the pressure to prospects of another US rate hike, which would widen the yield advantage of dollar assets.

Domestic sentiment matters too. China Bank chief economist Domini Velasquez cited "eroding investor confidence amid growing concerns that the Philippines could face a period of stagflation," Philstar reported on 27 October. Philippine Institute for Development Studies fellow John Paolo Rivera said "external pressures continue to outweigh the support from higher interest rates."

What the BSP did, and what it says it will not do

On 22 October the Monetary Board raised the target reverse repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.50%, its fourth straight hike, GMA News reported. The overnight deposit and lending rates rose to 5.0% and 6.0%. September headline inflation was 7.2%, and the BSP raised its 2027 average inflation forecast to 6.0% from 5.4% while keeping 2026 at 6.1%. The next policy meeting is on 17 December.

Governor Eli Remolona Jr. was explicit that the hike was about inflation, not the exchange rate. "We're not hiking the policy rate to defend the peso," he said, according to the Daily Tribune. He said the BSP intervenes "a little bit" in the foreign exchange market, mainly to limit swings that could feed inflation, and added: "Not every depreciation is inflationary." He declined to say what level of depreciation would trigger action.

That stance sits beside a stronger message from Malacañang. On 28 October Marcos said the policy is to "defend the peso as hard as possibly we can" and that "we have all the tools to defend the peso," Philstar reported. He had met Remolona and economic managers on 27 October to discuss the rate hike. Neither the BSP nor the palace has announced a specific new measure since.

What it means

Importers and consumers. Fuel and some food items are priced in dollars on world markets, so a weaker peso raises their local cost, Philstar noted. That adds to inflation that is already above the BSP's 2–4% target range and is one reason the central bank left the door open to further hikes.

OFW families. Remittances buy more pesos. A $500 transfer converted at the 27 October close of P64.17 yields P32,085, compared with P31,492.50 at the 16 October close of P62.985, a difference of P592.50 before fees. Higher local prices erode part of that gain.

PSEi investors. For foreign holders of Philippine stocks, peso weakness cuts returns measured in dollars, which can add to the portfolio outflows BusinessMirror flagged in the BOP data. Exporters and outsourcing firms that earn dollars but pay costs in pesos are the relative beneficiaries. Similar pressure has hit other ASEAN currencies; see our report on the Indonesian rupiah near its record low.

What to watch. The key markers are October BOP and reserves data from the BSP, the next inflation print, oil prices, and the Fed's next steps after its split vote. Our explainer on the Fed's October rate-hike debate covers why US policy matters for emerging-market currencies. Whether the 64 level holds is not known; economists quoted this month have offered a wide range of views, and none of them is a guarantee.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.