Gold Price Edges Up 0.18% on Oct 28, 2026 as Fed Holds in Split Vote

Key takeaways

• The gold price edged up 0.18% on Wednesday: spot gold (XAU/USD) ended October 28, 2026 at $4,066.60 an ounce, up $7.30, Kitco data at 17:00 New York time show. Trading Economics showed a similar $4,067.78, up 0.19%.
• The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point hike, the Fed's statement shows.
• Gold dipped after the 18:00 UTC decision, to $4,035.48 (down 0.60%), Kitco reported, then recovered as the dollar index slipped 0.19% to 102.13.
• December COMEX gold futures last traded at $4,081.20, up $6.60 or +0.16%, while December silver futures fell 0.47% to $54.040, Yahoo Finance data show.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.05% from 4.99%, and the 10-year real yield climbed to 2.67% from 2.64%, official Treasury data show.

Session recap

Gold posted a small third straight gain on Fed decision day after a volatile session, following Tuesday's 1.08% rise (see our October 27 gold brief). For other regions, see Asian and global markets today. Spot gold slipped early as oil prices rose. Reuters, in a report carried by Kitco, put it at $4,050.55, down 0.2%, at 12:49 UTC. It fell further after the Fed statement, then climbed back above Tuesday's close in late US trade.

Spot gold is Kitco's New York bid at 17:00 local time, compared with a previous close of $4,059.30. Futures changes are measured from Tuesday's closing values on Yahoo Finance ($4,074.60 for gold, $54.293 for silver). Gold futures traded between $4,036.90 and $4,097.20; silver futures between $53.325 and $54.685. Investing.com recorded a spot range of $4,025.04 to $4,082.81; its daily record, taken at a different cut-off, showed a close of $4,057.88. Kitco's spot silver was $53.85, down 0.82%. Treasury yields are published to two decimals, based on quotes near 15:30 New York time; changes compare with October 27. LBMA Gold Price benchmarks were not publicly available at the time of writing, and the sources reviewed carried no new ETF or central bank purchase data.

Spot gold has held above $4,000 for three sessions, after closing at $3,995.80 last Friday, according to Investing.com data, but it ended below Wednesday's intraday high of $4,082.81.

What drove it

The Fed held rates but split

At 2:00 p.m. EDT (18:00 UTC), the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The statement said "inflation remains elevated" and that economic activity "is expanding at a strong pace." Two members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. The statement gave no guidance on future moves, Kitco noted. The hold followed the Fed's first hike in more than three years in September, Investing.com reported. Our Fed October meeting explainer covers the debate inside the committee.

Gold dipped, then a softer dollar helped

Gold initially sold off after the announcement. Kitco reported spot at $4,035.48, down 0.60% on the session, shortly after the decision. As Chair Kevin Warsh spoke, the dollar eased and gold rebounded, according to Investing.com, which reported spot gold up 0.2% at $4,069.86 at 19:58 UTC. Warsh said "the period right in front of us is information rich," Investing.com reported, and that financial conditions had tightened somewhat since September. The dollar index ended the day 0.19% lower at 102.13, Yahoo Finance data show. Gold is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar makes it cheaper for overseas buyers.

Oil kept inflation worries alive

Crude limited gold's gains. Brent rose 1.1% to $115.12 a barrel at 19:50 UTC, Investing.com reported, after a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery. Trading Economics said the Houthis claimed the strike and that Saudi authorities had not confirmed it. Higher energy prices raise inflation expectations, which keeps pressure on the Fed to tighten. Capital Economics economist Hamad Hussain said higher oil prices and the risk of a more hawkish Fed were weighing on gold, according to the Reuters report carried by Kitco. Our explainer on how oil price shocks hit inflation and rates sets out that chain.

Yields rose, a headwind gold absorbed

Treasury's end-of-day figures moved against gold. The 10-year real yield, the return after inflation on inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS), rose to 2.67% from 2.64%. The 10-year nominal yield climbed to 5.05%, while the 2-year yield slipped to 4.67%. Gold pays no interest, so higher real yields usually raise the cost of holding it. On Wednesday, the weaker dollar mattered more by the close.

Analysts still expect a December hike

Traders continued to price a hike in December, Reuters reported via Kitco, citing CME FedWatch. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Northlight Asset Management, told Kitco that "if it weren't so close to the midterm elections, they probably would have raised rates today." In a Reuters poll cited by FX Leaders, 94 of 100 economists expected Wednesday's hold. A separate Reuters survey found analysts had cut their 2026 gold price forecasts for a second straight quarter, citing high yields, a strong dollar and higher-for-longer rates, according to the report carried by Kitco.

Silver lagged

Silver did not share gold's recovery: December futures fell 0.47% to $54.040. Silver is more tied to industrial demand, which can make it more sensitive to growth and rate worries.

What it means

Analysis. The decision itself was no surprise; the split vote and Warsh's tone were the news. Gold's dip and recovery show that traders are weighing two forces at once: higher yields and oil-driven inflation on one side, and a softer dollar on the other.

Political & policy watch

• Fed and the midterms. Northlight's Zaccarelli linked the hold to the November 3 elections, Kitco reported. The Fed's statement does not mention the elections, and its 10–2 vote shows a committee divided over how quickly to tighten.
• Yemen and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, Trading Economics reported. Saudi authorities had not confirmed the attack.
• US-Iran. Markets fear the US could resume military action against Iran after the November 3 midterms, Trading Economics reported. Qatari mediators presented a new draft proposal, which an Iranian official rejected, according to the same source. Neither Washington nor Tehran has announced new military plans.
• Inflation. The Fed said inflation "remains elevated" and that it "will deliver price stability," a signal that tighter policy remains possible.

What to watch next

• October 29: US third-quarter GDP and the September PCE inflation index, the Fed's preferred gauge, according to Investing.com and Reuters. A European Central Bank decision is also due. See our central bank meeting calendar.
• October 30: Bank of Japan policy decision.
• November 3: US midterm elections.
• December: The Fed's next policy meeting, where traders expect a hike.
• Each London business day: LBMA Gold Price AM (10:30 London) and PM (15:00 London) benchmarks.

Risk checklist for readers

• Decision-day moves can reverse. Gold fell after the statement and recovered during the press conference, so a single snapshot can mislead.
• Different feeds, different closes. Spot prices from Kitco, Trading Economics and Investing.com use different cut-off times and can differ by several dollars.
• Inflation data are next. The PCE report can shift rate expectations and move gold, the dollar and yields together.
• Watch real yields. The TIPS yield shows the return available after inflation and remains one of gold's most-watched drivers.
• Energy headlines spill over. Unconfirmed reports from the Gulf can move oil and, through inflation expectations, gold.
• Leverage magnifies losses. Futures and margin products can force selling in fast markets.
• Use primary data. The Federal Reserve, US Treasury, CME Group, LBMA and the World Gold Council publish the figures behind most headlines.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.