MKTMarkets NO. ---

Gold (XAU/USD) daily brief, Oct 22, 2026: 11-week low on Fed fears

Spot gold fell 2.4% to its lowest since early August and December futures settled at $4,060.40 as a five-month high in oil revived Fed hike bets, even though Treasury yields and the dollar fell. Silver lost 5.4%.

By Rowan Ashby Published 22.10.26 21:36 UTC 6 min read

Gold (XAU/USD) daily brief, Oct 22, 2026: 11-week low on Fed fears — Unknown /

Key takeaways

The gold price fell sharply on Thursday, October 22, 2026: spot gold (XAU/USD) was down 2.4% at $4,041.39 an ounce at 18:05 UTC, its lowest level since August 3, Reuters reported.
December COMEX gold futures settled 2.2% lower at $4,060.40 an ounce, according to Reuters.
Silver fell harder: spot silver dropped 5.4% to $54.84, and platinum lost 3.7% to $1,570.85, its lowest since July 17 (Reuters, 18:05 UTC).
Gold fell even though the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped 17 basis points to 4.96% and the 10-year real yield fell to 2.64% from 2.76%, according to official US Treasury data.
Traders put the probability of a Fed rate hike in December at 78%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool cited by Reuters. Higher oil prices are keeping inflation fears alive.

Session recap

Selling started in Asia, where Reuters put spot gold 1.3% lower at $4,085.29 at 05:30 UTC, and picked up in New York. Bonds rallied and the dollar eased, a mix that usually helps gold, yet the metal fell anyway. Each row below shows its own time and source.

Gold and related markets, Thursday, October 22, 2026
Instrument	Close/Level	Change	% change	As of (UTC)	Source
Spot gold (XAU/USD)	$4,041.39	n/a	-2.4%	Oct 22, 18:05	Reuters via MarketScreener
Spot gold (XAU/USD), later quote	$4,024.82	-$116.28	-2.81%	Oct 22 (time not stated)	Trading Economics
COMEX gold futures, December	$4,060.40 (settlement)	n/a	-2.2%	Oct 22, 17:30 settlement	Reuters via MarketScreener
LBMA Gold Price AM / PM	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	LBMA (data behind licensed portal)
Spot silver	$54.84	n/a	-5.4%	Oct 22, 18:05	Reuters via MarketScreener
Platinum	$1,570.85	n/a	-3.7%	Oct 22, 18:05	Reuters via MarketScreener
US 10-year Treasury yield	4.96%	-0.17 pts	n/a	Oct 22, end of day	US Treasury
US 2-year Treasury yield	4.65%	-0.16 pts	n/a	Oct 22, end of day	US Treasury
US 10-year real yield (TIPS)	2.64%	-0.12 pts	n/a	Oct 22, end of day	US Treasury
US 5-year real yield (TIPS)	2.33%	-0.22 pts	n/a	Oct 22, end of day	US Treasury
US Dollar Index (DXY)	about 101.50 (three-week low)	n/a	n/a	Oct 22, intraday	FX Leaders
Global gold ETF holdings	4,256 tonnes (record)	+$10bn inflow in September	n/a	End of September 2026	World Gold Council

"n/a" means no verified figure was available at writing time; LBMA benchmarks sit behind a licensed portal, and no daily ETF flow for October 22 was published. Yield changes compare with Treasury's October 21 figures.For why yields matter so much here, see our 10-year Treasury yield explainer.

What drove it

Oil, inflation and the Fed

The main reason given for the drop was oil. Crude rose about 3% to a five-month high, Reuters reported. Yahoo Finance's market coverage showed Brent near $112 a barrel by 16:55 UTC and WTI close to $100. Higher energy prices add to inflation, and markets expect the Federal Reserve to respond by raising rates further. David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, told Reuters that rising energy prices are fuelling inflation worries and, with them, fears of more Fed hikes. Gold pays no interest, so expectations of higher rates make it costlier to hold. US consumer and producer inflation data last week were hotter than expected, Reuters noted.

Data released on the day did not ease those fears. Initial jobless claims fell to 194,000, the lowest in three months, according to Yahoo Finance, a sign that the labour market is still firm.

Bonds rallied, but gold did not follow

Treasury yields fell hard as investors left stocks for bonds; the 10-year yield dropped from 5.13% to 4.96%. The real yield, the return after inflation measured through inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS), also fell. Lower real yields and a dollar at a three-week low near 101.50 (FX Leaders) usually support gold. Analysis: the selling was broad. Silver, platinum and palladium all fell more than gold in percentage terms, and Bitcoin dropped about 4%, Yahoo Finance reported. Why gold fell while yields and the dollar were lower: the cause has not been confirmed by the sources reviewed.

Equities and the AI trade

The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.6% and the S&P 500 1.2%, Yahoo Finance reported, after Meta shares dropped nearly 7% following its results and chip stocks fell on renewed worries about AI spending.

Flows and physical demand

Longer-term demand data remain firm. The World Gold Council said global gold ETFs took in about $10 billion in September and holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes. Central banks bought a net 39 tonnes in August, bringing 2026 purchases to 170 tonnes, led by China (20 tonnes) and Poland (8 tonnes), the WGC reported on October 6. In silver, Reuters reported that India issued permits to import about 6,500 metric tons over six months to meet festive demand.

What it means

Analysis. For now, rate expectations driven by oil appear to matter more for gold than the metal's role as a haven in the US–Iran conflict, a pattern seen in our October 21 gold brief. Economists at Intesa Sanpaolo told Reuters they expect precious metals to lack a clear direction and to stay volatile. The Fed's decision next week is the next test. Next session: spot gold slipped below $4,000, as our gold brief for Oct. 23 shows.

Political & policy watch

Iran. The New York Times reported, citing unnamed US officials, that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, according to Yahoo Finance and Briefs. The report had not been officially confirmed in the sources reviewed. President Trump said on October 8 that the US would not strike Iran before the midterms, Al Jazeera reported. See also our report on Trump's comments on talks with Iran.
Gulf attacks. Saudi Arabia reported attacks on Dammam airport and an Aramco oil field, Yahoo Finance said, and Reuters linked the oil rally to Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. Our oil daily brief follows the supply side.
Federal Reserve. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. A hold is widely expected at the October 27–28 meeting, Reuters reported. Our Fed meeting explainer covers the debate.
Europe. FX Leaders noted concern about France's public finances, with the French 10-year yield near 5.05%. Background: why France's 10-year yield hit 5%.

What to watch next

October 22, 23:30 UTC: Japan September national CPI.
October 23, 13:45 UTC: US flash PMIs for October.
October 27–28: FOMC meeting. The decision is due on October 28 at 18:00 UTC, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.
October 29: US PCE inflation data (Reuters) and the ECB policy decision.
October 30: Bank of Japan policy decision.
November 3: US midterm elections. November 10: US October CPI.

Risk checklist for readers

Relationships can break. Gold usually rises when real yields and the dollar fall. On October 22 it fell anyway. One indicator rarely explains a whole move.
Oil is a key input right now. Supply shocks in the Gulf move inflation expectations and, in turn, rate bets.
Scheduled events can cause big swings. The Fed decision, PCE data and the US midterms all fall within the next two weeks.
Check which price is quoted. Spot, futures, LBMA benchmarks and ETF prices differ and are taken at different times.
Silver is more volatile. It fell more than twice as much as gold in percentage terms on Thursday.
Leverage and currency add risk. Futures and margin products magnify losses, and local-currency returns also depend on exchange rates.
Use official data. Treasury, the Fed, CME and the World Gold Council publish the primary figures behind most headlines.

Frequently asked questions

Why does gold often fall when interest rate expectations rise?

Gold pays no interest. When markets expect higher policy rates, assets that pay interest, such as Treasury bills, become more attractive by comparison, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold.

What is the difference between spot gold and COMEX gold futures?

Spot gold is the price for near-immediate delivery, quoted around the clock. COMEX futures are exchange-traded contracts for delivery in a future month; they settle once a day and usually trade above spot because they include financing and storage costs.

What are real yields and why do gold traders watch them?

A real yield is a bond's return after expected inflation, shown in the US by yields on inflation-protected Treasury securities (TIPS). Lower real yields have often supported gold, though the link can weaken, as it did on October 22, 2026.