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Gold Price Today (Oct 23): Falls 0.77% Below $4,000 on Fed Hike Bets
Spot gold closed the week at $3,993.96 after touching its lowest since July 20, as oil near $115 a barrel kept Fed rate-hike bets alive and US yields rose back to 5.00%.
Key takeaways
- The gold price today fell below $4,000: spot gold (XAU/USD) closed Friday, October 23, 2026 at $3,993.96 an ounce, down $30.86 or −0.77%, according to Trading Economics.
- December COMEX gold futures last traded at $4,010.00, down $50.40 or −1.24% from Thursday's $4,060.40 settlement, Yahoo Finance data show. Since Monday's $4,160.10 close, futures have fallen 3.61%.
- Spot gold touched $3,986.50 during the session, its lowest since July 20, Reuters reported at 12:10 UTC.
- US yields rose again: the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 5.00% and the 10-year real yield at 2.66%, official US Treasury data show.
- Traders priced an 81% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters, as Brent crude neared $115 a barrel.
Session recap
Gold ended the week below the $4,000 mark, extending Thursday's sharp drop (see our October 22 gold brief). Reuters said the metal was on track for its worst week since June. It first broke under $4,000 in Asian trading, steadied around $4,020 in Europe, then slipped back later in the day while yields and the dollar firmed. For other regions, see Asian and global markets today.
| Instrument | Close/Level | Change | % change | As of (UTC) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot gold (XAU/USD) | $3,993.96 | −$30.86 | −0.77% | 2026-10-23 21:00 | Trading Economics |
| COMEX gold futures, December (last trade) | $4,010.00 | −$50.40 | −1.24% | 2026-10-23 21:00 | Yahoo Finance (GC=F) |
| COMEX silver futures, December (last trade) | $53.96 | −$0.80 | −1.47% | 2026-10-23 21:00 | Yahoo Finance (SI=F) |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.75 | +0.14 | +0.14% | 2026-10-23 21:00 | Yahoo Finance (DX-Y.NYB) |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.00% | +0.04 pts | +0.81% | 2026-10-23 19:30 | US Treasury |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 4.69% | +0.04 pts | +0.86% | 2026-10-23 19:30 | US Treasury |
| US 10-year real yield (TIPS) | 2.66% | +0.02 pts | +0.76% | 2026-10-23 19:30 | US Treasury |
Spot gold compares with Trading Economics' Thursday close of $4,024.82; the quote was taken after the 21:00 UTC weekly close. Futures rows are the last trade of the session; changes are measured from Thursday's official settlement. Treasury publishes yields to two decimals, based on market quotes near 15:30 New York time; changes compare with October 22. The LBMA Gold Price AM and PM benchmarks are released publicly with a delay to midnight London time and were not available at writing.
Other metals also fell. At 12:10 UTC, Reuters had spot silver at $53.84, its lowest since November 2025, platinum down 0.8% at $1,558.18 and palladium down 0.6% at $1,047.69.
What drove it
Oil, inflation and Fed rate-hike bets
The main driver cited by Reuters and Kitco was oil. Brent briefly approached $115 a barrel on Friday, its highest in about five months, Kitco reported, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz raised supply fears. Higher fuel costs feed inflation. US consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier in September and producer prices 6.3%, Kitco noted.
That keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve, which raised rates in September. CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters showed only a 9% chance of a hike at the October 27–28 meeting but 81% by December. Gold pays no interest, so expected higher rates raise the cost of holding it. "The rise in oil prices could result in real interest rates remaining higher for longer," Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, told Reuters.
Yields and the dollar turned back up
Thursday's bond rally faded. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.00% from 4.96%, and the 10-year real yield, the return after inflation measured through inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS), rose to 2.66% from 2.64%, Treasury data show. The dollar index edged up 0.14% to 101.75. Both moves usually weigh on gold, which is priced in dollars.
Positioning and cross-asset selling
Analysts also point to positioning. HSBC's chief precious metals analyst James Steel said the rally earlier this year drew in new money and left the market too long, InvestingLive reported, and described the selling as "cashing in an insurance policy" rather than abandoning it. Some leveraged investors have sold gold to meet margin calls during equity sell-offs, the same report said; the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% on Thursday, Kitco noted. Kitco wrote that gold "failed to attract sustained safe-haven demand" despite the Middle East conflict.
Flows and physical demand
Longer-term demand data are firmer than the price action. Global gold ETFs took in about $10 billion in September and holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Central banks bought a net 39 tonnes in August, taking 2026 purchases to 170 tonnes, according to the WGC. No daily ETF flow figure for October 23 had been published at writing time.
What it means
Analysis. For now, gold is trading as a rate-sensitive asset more than a haven: oil drives inflation fears, inflation drives Fed expectations, and those push real yields up. Our Fed October meeting explainer sets out what policymakers are weighing next week.
Political & policy watch
- Gulf security. Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and Hormuz tensions are driving crude higher, according to Reuters and Kitco. Our oil daily brief follows the supply side.
- Iran. Reuters described energy prices above $100 as a result of the Iran war. President Trump said on October 8 that the US would not strike Iran before the midterm elections, Al Jazeera reported; see also Trump's comments on talks with Iran.
- Federal Reserve. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its statement shows. Markets expect a hold on October 28, Kitco and Reuters reported.
- US politics. The November 3 midterm elections fall a week after the Fed meeting, adding a second scheduled source of volatility.
What to watch next
- October 27–28: FOMC meeting. The decision is due on October 28 at 18:00 UTC, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.
- October 29: US PCE inflation data, named by Reuters as the next key release for gold, and the ECB policy decision.
- October 30: Bank of Japan policy decision.
- November 3: US midterm elections.
- November 10: US October CPI.
- Each trading day: LBMA Gold Price AM (10:30 London) and PM (15:00 London) benchmarks.
Risk checklist for readers
- Round numbers draw attention. A move below $4,000 is widely reported, but it does not by itself change gold's supply or demand.
- Watch real yields. The TIPS yield reflects the return available after inflation; it has been one of gold's most-watched drivers this month.
- Oil now feeds into gold. Energy shocks move inflation expectations and, through them, Fed rate bets.
- Scheduled events can cause large swings. The Fed decision, PCE data and the US midterms all fall within the next 11 days.
- Know which price you are reading. Spot, futures, LBMA benchmarks and ETF prices differ and are fixed at different times.
- Leverage magnifies losses. Futures and margin products can force selling in fast markets, as this week showed.
- Use primary data. Treasury, the Fed, CME, LBMA and the World Gold Council publish the figures behind most headlines.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the gold price fall when Fed rate-hike expectations rise?
Gold pays no interest. When markets expect higher policy rates, interest-paying assets such as Treasury bills become more attractive by comparison, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold.
What is the difference between spot gold and COMEX gold futures?
Spot gold (XAU/USD) is the price for near-immediate delivery and trades around the clock on weekdays. COMEX futures are exchange-traded contracts for delivery in a later month; they have an official daily settlement and usually trade slightly above spot because of financing and storage costs.
What is the LBMA Gold Price?
The LBMA Gold Price is a benchmark set twice each London business day, at 10:30 and 15:00 London time, through an electronic auction. It is widely used to price physical gold contracts, and the public figures are released with a delay.
Sources
- Trading Economics: Gold
- Yahoo Finance: Gold futures (GC=F)
- Yahoo Finance: Silver futures (SI=F)
- Yahoo Finance: US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)
- Reuters via MarketScreener: Gold heads for steep weekly loss as oil prices fuel Fed rate concerns (Oct 23, 2026)
- Kitco: Gold heads for steep weekly loss as Hormuz tensions lift crude (Oct 23, 2026)
- InvestingLive: Gold drops below $4,000 for first time since July (Oct 23, 2026)
- US Treasury: Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026
- US Treasury: Daily Par Real Yield Curve Rates, October 2026
- Reuters via MarketScreener: Gold drops as oil rally reinforces higher-for-longer rate outlook (Oct 22, 2026)
- World Gold Council: Gold ETF flows, September 2026
- World Gold Council: Central bank gold statistics, August 2026
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- Al Jazeera: Trump says US will not strike Iran before midterm elections
- TD Economics: Upcoming economic releases
- LBMA: LBMA Gold Price
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
