Natural gas futures fall 4.83% on mild US weather outlook

Key takeaways

• US natural gas futures (November Nymex contract, NG=F) fell 4.83% from the previous close to about $2.82 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), according to Yahoo Finance data as of 17:04 UTC on 21 October 2026.
• Market reports from Reuters (via Business Recorder), TradingKey and FXEmpire attribute the slide mainly to forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather in the central and eastern United States into early November, which cuts expected heating demand.
• The official NOAA outlook issued on 20 October shows above-normal temperatures for most of the central and eastern US for 28 October to 3 November.
• US storage stood at 3,567 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of 9 October, 1.3% above the five-year average, according to the EIA. The next weekly storage report is due on 22 October.

What happened to natural gas futures

Natural gas futures fell 4.83% to about $2.82/MMBtu on Wednesday, 21 October, according to Yahoo Finance data at 17:04 UTC. Market reports attribute the slide mainly to forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather in the central and eastern US into early November, which cuts expected heating demand.

The fall followed a 3.1% loss on Tuesday. The November contract settled at $2.963 on 20 October, down from $3.058 on Monday, according to Energy News Beat and Finimize. Finimize reported that Tuesday's session touched the lowest level since 2 October.

Selling continued on Wednesday. TradingKey reported the contract at $2.925, down 2.01%, at 04:30 ET (08:30 UTC), and put the seven-day decline at 10.82%. FXEmpire reported the contract at $2.840, down 4.15%, at 14:19 GMT, and said prices had broken below lows set in August and September.

Intraday changes are measured against the previous close. Data providers can differ slightly on timing and reference prices.

Why natural gas prices are falling: what we know

Mild weather forecasts

Weather is the cause named most often. According to Reuters, as published by Business Recorder, forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather through early November curbed expectations for heating demand. Reuters cited LSEG estimates that average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from about 106 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 110 bcfd next week. That is still well below the five-year seasonal average of about 117 bcfd.

The US government's own forecast points the same way. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an 8-14 day outlook on 20 October. It shows above-normal temperatures across most of the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Southeast from 28 October to 3 November. FXEmpire said the European weather model was also showing a much warmer-than-normal pattern for the next 15 days.

Comfortable storage and steady supply

Inventories give the market a cushion. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported 3,567 Bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending 9 October. That was 45 Bcf above the five-year average, although 143 Bcf below the same week last year.

TradingKey said comfortable storage and resilient production supported expectations of a well-supplied market. Reuters, citing LSEG data, reported that Lower 48 output had eased from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September, but remained close to 111 bcfd so far in October.

Technical selling and LNG flows

TradingKey said technical selling and the unwinding of positions added to the fall after prices broke short-term support. It also reported that gas flows to US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants were running at about 18.1 to 18.2 bcfd, below a recent peak of 18.8 bcfd, because of autumn maintenance and pipeline limits. That leaves more gas in the domestic market.

Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said the market was focused on near-term mild temperatures, according to Energy News Beat and Finimize. Both outlets reported that the firm sees a "lower for longer" price range, even though global gas prices are firmer.

What we don't know yet

• The final settlement. Wednesday's official Nymex settlement was not available at the time of writing. The size of the daily loss may change before the close.
• A single trigger. No company announcement, policy decision or supply outage has been reported as the cause of Wednesday's move. Reports describe a continuation of weather-driven selling.
• Thursday's storage data. The EIA's next weekly report, due on 22 October, will show whether injections are running above or below expectations.
• Weather model changes. Outlooks two weeks ahead often shift. A colder turn in early November would change the demand picture quickly.

Background

Henry Hub futures are the main US benchmark for natural gas. In October, prices usually depend on two things: how much gas goes into storage before winter, and how early cold weather arrives. When autumn is mild, demand for both heating and air conditioning is low, so more gas goes into storage.

The US slide contrasts with Europe. Energy News Beat reported that the Dutch TTF benchmark traded above €90 per megawatt-hour this week for the first time since December 2022, and that European storage was at its lowest level for the time of year since 2011, citing Vattenfall. According to Energy News Beat, Ritterbusch and Associates noted that US gas had reacted little to higher global energy prices so far, with domestic weather still the main driver.

For more context on energy markets, see our oil daily brief, our report on the UK approval of the Jackdaw gas field, the Europe stocks daily brief and the US stocks daily brief.

What it means

Lower futures prices affect producers' revenue expectations, utilities' fuel costs and, over time, some consumer heating bills. The move does not mean winter prices are settled. Storage is only modestly above average, and a cold spell could quickly increase withdrawals.

The next points to watch are the EIA storage report on 22 October at 10:30 ET (14:30 UTC), updated NOAA outlooks, and LNG export flows as maintenance work ends. Bullquill will update this story if new information about the cause appears.

Sources

• Yahoo Finance: Natural Gas (NG=F) quote
• US Energy Information Administration: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center: 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks
• Business Recorder (Reuters): US natgas falls on mild weather outlook
• TradingKey: Natural gas futures down 2.01% on Oct 21
• FXEmpire: November futures break below summer lows as warmth takes over
• Energy News Beat: Natural gas dips below $3
• Finimize: Warm forecasts knock US natural gas off a two-week low

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.