Gold Price Rises 0.57% on Oct 26, 2026 as Oil Eases Before Fed

Key takeaways

• The gold price rose back above $4,000 on Monday: spot gold (XAU/USD) closed October 26, 2026 at $4,016.72 an ounce, up $22.76 or +0.57%, according to Trading Economics.
• December COMEX gold futures last traded at $4,031.00, up $23.10 or +0.58% from Friday's $4,007.90 settlement, Yahoo Finance data show.
• The rebound followed Friday's drop to about $3,975, gold's lowest in more than three months, according to Trading Economics and FX Leaders, and a 4% weekly fall that Reuters described as the steepest since June.
• US yields were steady: the 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.00% and the 10-year real yield at 2.66%, official US Treasury data show.
• Softer oil prices eased inflation worries before the Federal Reserve's October 28 decision, while CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters still showed about a 75% chance of a December rate hike.

Session recap

Gold steadied after last week's slide (see our October 23 gold brief). Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,010.51 by 05:44 UTC in Asian trade, Reuters reported, as crude oil pulled back. It traded close to $4,000 for much of the day, Trading Economics noted, and finished at $4,016.72. For other regions, see Asian and global markets today.

Spot gold compares with Trading Economics' Friday close of $3,993.96; the quote was taken after the 21:00 UTC daily close. Futures rows are the last trade of the session, and changes are measured from Friday's official settlement ($4,007.90 for gold, $53.71 for silver). Silver futures traded between $53.03 and $54.48 during the day. Treasury publishes yields to two decimals, based on market quotes near 15:30 New York time; changes compare with October 23. The LBMA Gold Price AM and PM benchmarks are published with a delay and were not publicly available at the time of writing.

The move was modest after a turbulent week. December futures had settled at $4,150.00 on October 21 and fell in each of the next two sessions, Yahoo Finance data show. Monday's gain recovered only a small part of that drop.

What drove it

Oil eased, and so did inflation worries

The main driver cited by Reuters was a pullback in oil. Crude prices fell on Monday after nearing six-month highs last week, as Qatari mediators visited Tehran to try to ease regional tensions, FX Leaders and FinanceFeeds reported. Continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia kept supply risks in view.

Lower energy prices reduce the inflation pressure that has pushed up Fed rate-hike bets this month. "The jump that we've seen is mostly symptomatic of the kind of relief provided by a lower oil price," Kyle Rodda of Capital.com told Reuters. He added that gold "will continue to trade as a function of interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks."

The Fed is still the main event

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its statement shows. Traders widely expect no change on October 28, but CME FedWatch readings cited by Reuters and FX Leaders put the chance of a December hike at roughly 75% to 77% on Monday. Gold pays no interest, so expectations of higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding it. Our Fed October meeting explainer sets out what policymakers are weighing.

Yields flat, dollar slightly firmer

Bond markets gave gold little help either way. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed at 5.00% and the 10-year real yield, the return after inflation measured through inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS), stayed at 2.66%, Treasury data show. The 2-year yield slipped to 4.68%. The dollar index rose 0.19% to 102.00. A stronger dollar usually weighs on gold, which is priced in dollars, so gold's gain came despite that headwind.

Positioning after a heavy week

Friday's close was gold's first below $4,000 since mid-July, Reuters and FX Leaders reported. Rodda said gains could be capped while markets position for the Fed decision, according to Reuters. Silver rose alongside gold, with December futures up 0.60% to $54.04.

Flows and physical demand

The latest monthly data are firmer than recent price action. Global gold ETFs took in about $10 billion in September and holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Central banks bought a net 39 tonnes in August, taking 2026 purchases to 170 tonnes, according to the WGC. No daily ETF flow figure for October 26 had been published at the time of writing.

What it means

Analysis. Gold is still trading mainly as a rate-sensitive asset. Oil drives inflation expectations, inflation drives Fed rate bets, and those bets move real yields. Monday's bounce came from the first link in that chain easing, not from a fresh rush into safe havens.

Political & policy watch

• Gulf diplomacy. Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday seeking to ease regional tensions, FX Leaders and FinanceFeeds reported. The outcome of those talks had not been announced at the time of writing.
• Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted further Houthi missiles and drones, FinanceFeeds reported. Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi energy facilities have not been confirmed by Saudi Arabia.
• Federal Reserve. The October 27–28 meeting is the first since the September hike. Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance on December is seen as the key test for gold this week, FX Leaders wrote.
• US politics. The November 3 midterm elections fall six days after the Fed decision. President Trump said on October 8 that the US would not strike Iran before the midterms, Al Jazeera reported.

What to watch next

• October 28, 18:00 UTC: FOMC rate decision, followed by Chair Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC. See our central bank meeting calendar.
• October 29, 12:30 UTC: US September PCE inflation and the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP.
• October 29: European Central Bank policy decision.
• October 30: Bank of Japan policy decision.
• November 3: US midterm elections.
• November 10: US October CPI.
• Each London business day: LBMA Gold Price AM (10:30 London) and PM (15:00 London) benchmarks.

Risk checklist for readers

• Pre-meeting moves can reverse. Prices often drift before a central bank decision and react sharply to the statement and press conference.
• Watch real yields. The TIPS yield shows the return available after inflation; it has been one of gold's most-watched drivers this month.
• Oil now feeds into gold. Energy prices move inflation expectations and, through them, Fed rate bets. Headlines from the Gulf can move both markets quickly.
• Several scheduled events are close together. The Fed, PCE data, ECB, BoJ and the US midterms all fall within eight days.
• Know which price you are reading. Spot, futures, LBMA benchmarks and ETF prices differ and are set at different times.
• Leverage magnifies losses. Futures and margin products can force selling in fast markets.
• Use primary data. The US Treasury, the Fed, CME Group, LBMA and the World Gold Council publish the figures behind most headlines.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.