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Brent Loses 13.32% in Week to Nov 6, 2026 as Iran War Premium Fades
January Brent settled at $98.32 on November 6, down 13.32% on the week, after a Democratic sweep in the US midterms raised hopes of an end to the Iran war. December WTI lost 12.76% to $90.83.
January Brent crude futures fell 13.32% in the week to Friday, November 6, 2026, settling at $98.32 a barrel at the close (19:30 UTC). US midterm results raised hopes of an end to the Iran war and cut the war premium. December WTI lost 12.76% to $90.83.
Key takeaways
- January Brent settled at $98.32 at the close (19:30 UTC) on November 6, down $15.11 (−13.32%) from its $113.43 settlement a week earlier, according to CNBC and a Bloomberg report carried by Rigzone.
- December WTI settled at $90.83 at 19:30 UTC on November 6, down $13.29 (−12.76%) from $104.12 on October 30.
- Measured against the expired December Brent contract ($117.64 on October 30), the front-month Brent price fell 16.42%. Brent was on track for its steepest weekly percentage fall since the Covid-19 pandemic began, according to a Reuters report carried by Yahoo Finance.
- The biggest drop came on Wednesday, November 4, when Brent fell $8.98 to $94.62 and WTI fell $7.97 to $88.12, both their lowest settlements since August 31, according to a Reuters report carried by GMA News.
- The EIA said US crude stocks fell 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million in the week to October 30. A Reuters poll had expected a build of 877,000 barrels.
Week in review
Oil fell in the first three sessions and recovered only part of the loss on Thursday and Friday, as the market priced out part of the risk premium built up since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February. For other regions, see Asian and global market closes. Our oil weekly brief for October 30 covers the previous week, and what the Brent slump means for ASEAN oil budgets looks at the effect on Southeast Asian importers and exporters.
| Instrument | Prior week close (Fri) | Week close (Fri) | Weekly change | % change | Week high / low | As of (UTC) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude (ICE, Jan) | 113.43 | 98.32 | −15.11 | −13.32% | 112.38 / 93.40 | 2026-11-06 19:30 | CNBC; Bloomberg via Rigzone; Yahoo Finance |
| WTI crude (NYMEX, Dec) | 104.12 | 90.83 | −13.29 | −12.76% | 102.75 / 86.65 | 2026-11-06 19:30 | CNBC; Bloomberg via Rigzone; Yahoo Finance |
| Brent-WTI spread (Jan Brent / Dec WTI) | 9.31 | 7.49 | −1.82 | −19.55% | n/a | 2026-11-06 19:30 | Bullquill calculation from settlements above |
Prior-week settlements are from October 30 at 18:30 UTC; settlement moved to 19:30 UTC from November 2. Highs and lows are Yahoo Finance daily data (both highs November 2; Brent low November 4, WTI low November 5). Yahoo's Friday "close" ($97.90 Brent, $90.51 WTI) reflects trading after settlement. The spread has no published high or low.
Day by day
- Monday, Nov 2: Brent fell $8.66 (−7.63%) to $104.77 and WTI fell $7.66 (−7.36%) to $96.46. Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran, and Iran's president said the government had been given authority for talks, Nation Thailand reported.
- Tuesday, Nov 3: Brent fell $1.17 (−1.12%) to $103.60, its lowest close since October 7, and WTI fell $0.37 (−0.38%) to $96.09, according to a Reuters report carried by Yahoo Finance. Overnight US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island appeared limited, a US official said.
- Wednesday, Nov 4: Brent fell $8.98 (−8.67%) to $94.62 and WTI fell $7.97 (−8.29%) to $88.12 after Republicans lost control of Congress, according to a Reuters report carried by GMA News.
- Thursday, Nov 5: Brent rose $3.67 (+3.88%) to $98.29 and WTI rose $2.40 (+2.72%) to $90.52 after new tanker attacks, with UKMTO recording at least five vessels hit since Sunday, according to a Reuters report carried by Investing.com.
- Friday, Nov 6: Brent edged up $0.03 (+0.03%) to $98.32 and WTI rose $0.31 (+0.34%) to $90.83. CIBC's Rebecca Babin said markets were "very much in wait-and-see mode," according to a Bloomberg report carried by Rigzone.
Inventories and activity
The EIA's weekly report, released November 4 at 15:30 UTC, showed US commercial crude stocks down 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million in the week to October 30, against a Reuters poll forecast of a small build, according to a Reuters report carried by GMA News. Oilprice.com said distillate stocks fell 3.6 million barrels and gasoline stocks 200,000 barrels, while four-week total products supplied averaged 21.2 million barrels per day, up 4.2% from a year earlier. The American Petroleum Institute had reported a crude draw of 5.267 million barrels for the same week, Oilprice.com said.
What drove it
US midterms and the Iran war premium
The main driver was politics. Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, The National reported, and investors bet that the result could hasten an end to the war, according to a Reuters report carried by GMA News. "A bit of unwinding of the war premium seems to be what's going on," Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group told Reuters. Not everyone agreed the shift was settled. "I'm more concerned that we can see an escalation in Iran sooner than a resolution," Carl Larry of Enverus told Reuters.
Diplomacy with Iran
Monday's slide followed Qatari mediation and signals from Tehran that it would try to resolve the conflict through dialogue. Raymond James's Pavel Molchanov warned of earlier "false dawns," Nation Thailand reported. Later in the week, CNBC, citing Reuters, said Iran had sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar. A senior Iranian official said the two sides remained far from a deal, Reuters reported.
Gulf supply returning to the market
Supply signals also weighed on prices. Gulf crude exports averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September but about three-quarters of pre-war levels, according to the Reuters report carried by GMA News. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were restoring shipments, and Saudi Arabia cut its crude prices for Asian buyers, including Southeast Asian refiners, to a six-year low, according to a Bloomberg report carried by Rigzone.
Tanker attacks set a floor
Attacks on shipping limited the fall. A seafarer was killed in a November 5 explosion on a products tanker in the Gulf, and UKMTO data showed attacks on oil-carrying ships running near a record pace, according to a Reuters report carried by Yahoo Finance. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two tankers and a tugboat caught fire after using "unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz," according to a Reuters report carried by Investing.com.
Risk-off markets and natural gas
A sharp sell-off in technology shares on Thursday and a stronger dollar led investors to cut commodity positions, according to the Bloomberg report carried by Rigzone. For the link between crude and interest rates, see how oil price shocks hit inflation and rates. In US natural gas, the EIA reported a 77 billion cubic foot storage injection for the week to October 30, bringing working gas to 3,801 Bcf, 1.4% above the five-year average and 2.8% below a year earlier.
Political & policy watch
- Washington after the midterms. Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that "the reason we lost is the war," The National reported. President Donald Trump told the Financial Times the US had no immediate plans to strike Iran, Reuters reported. On Thursday he told reporters, "You'll know soon enough," about whether to resume attacks, The National reported. See also US midterm results and Asian markets.
- US-Iran talks. Qatar is stepping up mediation, but Iran's position on negotiations had not changed by Thursday, Reuters reported.
- OPEC+. Seven core members agreed on November 1 to keep December targets at September 2026 required levels, about 31 million barrels per day combined, The National reported. Most are producing below target because of the war.
- Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries continued, and Russia confirmed three-way talks with Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11, Reuters reported.
What to watch next
- November 10-11: Russia-Ukraine-US talks in Abu Dhabi.
- November 12, 17:00 UTC: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, delayed one day by the Veterans Day holiday, covering the week to November 6.
- November 18, 15:30 UTC: next regular EIA weekly petroleum report.
- November 29: next OPEC+ meeting, where the group is reviewing member capacity to set 2027 quotas.
- Ongoing: any decision by Washington on talks or renewed strikes, and UKMTO reports on shipping in the Gulf and Red Sea.
Risk checklist for readers
- Contract rolls change weekly figures. Brent's loss in the week to November 6 was 13.32% on the January contract but 16.42% against the expired December contract. Check which contract a report uses.
- Settlements versus later quotes. Official settlements are fixed at 19:30 UTC; prices on data sites after that can differ.
- Claims are not confirmations. Many statements about talks and attacks come from one side. Look for confirmation from governments or the companies involved.
- Weekly inventory data is noisy. EIA and API figures often differ, and single weeks are frequently revised.
- Leverage amplifies swings. Futures and leveraged products can magnify gains and losses in volatile weeks.
- Read primary sources. The EIA, OPEC and the exchanges publish the data that news reports summarize.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Brent fall in the week to November 6, 2026?
Brent fell after US-Iran diplomacy picked up on Monday, November 2, and after Republicans lost control of Congress in the US midterms, which investors saw as raising the chance of an end to the Iran war. Brent fell 8.67% on Wednesday alone. Renewed tanker attacks helped it recover part of the loss on Thursday, and the January contract settled at $98.32 on Friday, down 13.32% for the week.
Why do reports give different weekly losses for Brent?
The December Brent contract expired on October 30 at $117.64, and January became the front month. Comparing Friday's $98.32 January settlement with the expired December contract gives a 16.42% fall; comparing it with January's own October 30 settlement of $113.43 gives 13.32%.
What does the Brent-WTI spread measure?
It is the price gap between Brent, the international benchmark traded on ICE Futures Europe, and WTI, the US benchmark traded on NYMEX. It tends to narrow when risks to supply outside the US ease faster than US supply conditions change, and it depends on which contract months are compared.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
