Brent Oil Gains 0.79% in Week to Oct 30, 2026 as Iran Risk Returns

Brent crude rose 0.79% in the week to Friday, October 30, 2026. The expiring December contract settled at $117.64 a barrel at the close (18:30 UTC), after fears of a wider Iran war returned on Friday. December WTI gained 0.82% to $104.12.

Key takeaways

• December Brent settled at $117.64 at the close (18:30 UTC) on October 30, up $0.92 (+0.79%) from $116.72 a week earlier, on the day the contract expired, Reuters reported.
• December WTI settled at $104.12 at 18:30 UTC on October 30, up $0.85 (+0.82%) from $103.27. CNBC said prices reached their highest levels since the end of April.
• The more active January Brent contract settled at $113.43 on Friday, up $2.63, so the headline Brent price will fall when January becomes the front month.
• Prices dipped early in the week on Gulf diplomacy, with WTI settling below $100 on Tuesday, then rose 2.40% (Brent) and 2.08% (WTI) on Friday after a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The EIA said US commercial crude stocks fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million in the week to October 23. A Reuters poll had expected a small build.

Week in review

Oil ended almost where it started, but the path was uneven: two days of losses on peace efforts, a rebound on war-risk reports, and a strong Friday finish. For other regions, see Asian and global markets today. Our oil weekly brief for October 23 covers the previous week's 6.24% Brent rally, and WTI crude below $100 looks at Tuesday's dip in detail.

Friday settlements: Reuters, CNBC and Newsquawk. Prior-week settlements and daily highs and lows: Yahoo Finance. Brent's weekly high of $118.00 was reported by Reuters on Friday. Its low of $112.92 was set on Thursday, according to Yahoo Finance; Friday's intraday low for the expiring December contract was not published by these sources. The spread has no published high or low. Using January Brent ($113.43) instead, the spread to December WTI was $9.31 at Friday's settlement.

Day by day

• Monday, Oct 26: Brent fell $0.91 (−0.78%) to $115.81 after briefly topping $117, and WTI fell $1.51 (−1.46%) to $101.76. Saudi Arabia's defense minister met Iran's president in Tehran to ease tensions, CNBC reported.
• Tuesday, Oct 27: Brent fell $1.93 (−1.67%) to $113.88 and WTI fell $1.86 (−1.83%) to $99.90. Iran said it was flexible on a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifted its blockade within seven days, Bloomberg reported.
• Wednesday, Oct 28: Brent rose $1.44 (+1.26%) to $115.32 and WTI jumped $2.88 (+2.88%) to $102.78. CNBC, citing the Wall Street Journal, said the US had told Gulf states to prepare for "a short but intense military campaign" after the US midterms.
• Thursday, Oct 29: Brent slipped $0.44 (−0.38%) to $114.88 and WTI fell $0.78 (−0.76%) to $102.00 as reports of US outreach to Iran revived hopes for talks, CNBC reported.
• Friday, Oct 30: December Brent rose $2.76 (+2.40%) to $117.64 and WTI rose $2.12 (+2.08%) to $104.12 after a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by explosives, Reuters reported.

Inventories and activity

The EIA's weekly report, released October 28, showed US crude stocks down 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million in the week to October 23, Reuters reported via Kitco. Gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million, while distillates fell 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million. Refinery utilization slipped 0.6 percentage points to 92.8%, and crude exports rose 1.4 million barrels per day to 4.85 million. Kpler's Matt Smith said the "EIA appears to have significantly overestimated crude exports." Baker Hughes data showed US oil rigs up two to 462 in the week to October 30, with the total rig count flat at 603, Newsquawk reported.

What drove it

Geopolitics: diplomacy versus escalation

The week's swings followed headlines about the US-Iran war. Early losses came as officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey visited Tehran. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank told Bloomberg that prices would need "solid statements from all sides that the situation is cooling" to fall further. Sentiment turned on Wednesday after the reports of US plans for strikes once the November 3 midterms are over.

On Friday, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by explosives attached by a small boat, according to a UKMTO report cited by Reuters. Maritime sources described it as the first known successful limpet-mine strike in the waterway since the war began in February. The attacker had not been identified. "Traders will remain focused on oil flows out of the Middle East and the likely escalation by U.S. and allied forces," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial told Reuters.

Attacks on Saudi energy sites

Yemen's Houthis claimed missile strikes on the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries and Aramco's Abqaiq facility, Newsquawk reported. Saudi Arabia had not confirmed those claims in these reports. Even so, Saudi exports rose in October from September, according to two of three ship-tracking firms cited by Reuters.

Supply: inventories, the SPR and Libya

US stocks remain tight. Oilprice.com reported that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.6 million barrels, its lowest since October 1982. The US Energy Department awarded nearly 16.8 million barrels in loans on October 28, completing the US share of a coordinated global release. In Libya, an armed group shut a valve on the Hamada pipeline, halting about 15,000 barrels per day to the Zawiya refinery, Reuters reported.

Rates and inflation

José Torres of Interactive Brokers told CNBC that "pricey crude remains the predominant driver of above-target inflation," which links oil to the interest-rate outlook. For background, see How oil price shocks hit inflation and rates.

Natural gas: storage above average

US natural gas followed its own fundamentals. The EIA reported an 80 billion cubic foot storage injection for the week to October 23, bringing working gas to 3,724 Bcf, 1.0% above the five-year average and 3.8% below a year earlier.

Political & policy watch

• US-Iran diplomacy. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran, and Iran had received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance but had not replied, Reuters reported. Iran's Tasnim news agency said "any position that contradicts this framework is unacceptable."
• Military planning. The Wall Street Journal reported, as cited by CNBC, that Washington told Gulf allies to prepare for strikes after the midterms. The US government had not publicly confirmed such plans in these reports.
• Israel's election. Preliminary exit polls from Israel's October 27 vote showed neither bloc reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority, CNBC reported.
• US staff in Saudi Arabia. The US ordered non-emergency government staff and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, citing Houthi attacks, Reuters reported.
• OPEC+. Seven OPEC+ members kept November required production at September levels on October 4 and meet again on November 1, according to OPEC.

What to watch next

• November 1: OPEC+ meeting of seven members on December output. US daylight saving time ends, so US data releases move one hour later in UTC.
• November 3: US midterm elections; the API weekly inventory estimate follows at 21:30 UTC.
• November 4, 15:30 UTC: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
• November 5, 15:30 UTC: EIA weekly natural gas storage report.
• November 6: Baker Hughes weekly rig count.

Risk checklist for readers

• Contract rolls change the headline price. December Brent expired on October 30. January Brent settled about $4 lower, so front-month charts can show a drop that is not a market move.
• Settlements versus later quotes. Official settlements are fixed at set times. Prices shown on data sites after the settlement can differ by more than a dollar.
• Claims are not confirmations. Many reported attacks came from one side's statements. Check whether governments or companies have confirmed them.
• Election-linked event risk. The November 3 US midterms and any decisions that follow could move prices sharply in either direction.
• Weekly inventory data is noisy. Analysts questioned the EIA's export estimate this week, and single-week figures are often revised in later reports.
• Leverage amplifies swings. Futures and leveraged products can magnify gains and losses on headline-driven days.
• Read primary sources. The EIA, OPEC and the exchanges publish the data that news reports summarize.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.