Gold Price Rises 1.84% on Nov 2, 2026 as Oil Falls on Iran Talks

Key takeaways

• The gold price rose 1.84% on Monday. Kitco data show spot gold (XAU/USD) at $3,945.70 an ounce at 16:28 New York time (21:28 UTC) on November 2, 2026, up $71.30 from Friday's close. Trading Economics showed $3,945.13, up 1.79%.
• Lower oil prices drove the rebound. Oil fell after Iranian and Qatari officials held a third day of talks on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran, easing inflation worries, according to a Reuters report carried by Kitco.
• December COMEX gold futures last traded at $3,955.00 at 21:20 UTC, up 1.44%, Yahoo Finance data show. The contract traded between $3,889.00 and $3,980.80.
• Silver rose faster: December silver futures gained 3.06% to $50.600, and Kitco's spot silver stood at $50.45, up 2.95%, at 21:28 UTC.
• The dollar index slipped 0.11% to 101.773, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.91% from 4.94% and the 10-year real yield rose to 2.62% from 2.60%, official Treasury data show.

Session recap

Gold recovered part of Friday's 3.63% fall (see our October 30 gold brief) on the first trading day of November. For other regions, see Asian and global market closes. At 9:11 a.m. EDT (14:11 GMT), spot gold was up 1.74% at $3,942.57, according to a Reuters report carried by Kitco, which said the metal had fallen in the previous session to its lowest level since October 2025. Kitco's spot price ranged from $3,879.40 to $3,971.00 during Monday's session.

Spot gold and platinum are Kitco New York bids at 16:28 local time (EST), compared with Friday's closes. Futures and dollar index changes are measured from the October 30 closing values recorded by Yahoo Finance ($3,898.90 for gold, $49.097 for silver, 101.88 for the dollar index). Treasury yields are published to two decimals, based on quotes near 15:30 New York time; changes compare with October 30. LBMA Gold Price benchmarks were not publicly available at the time of writing, and the sources reviewed carried no new ETF or central bank purchase data.

Silver had dropped below $50 on Friday for the first time since late November 2025, the Reuters report said.

What drove it

Oil fell on Iran talks

The main support came from energy markets. Brent crude futures fell $4.79, or 4.2%, to $108.64 a barrel at 10:20 GMT, and US West Texas Intermediate traded at $99.71, down $4.41, according to a separate Reuters report carried by Kitco; that report did not specify the contract months. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi described the talks with Qatar as "ongoing and progressing," the report said. The Reuters gold report said cheaper crude eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations that US interest rates would stay high, which helps gold because it pays no interest. Our explainer on how oil price shocks hit inflation and rates sets out that link.

Fed hike expectations eased slightly

Traders still expected the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December, but those expectations had eased somewhat, Zaner Metals' Peter Grant said in the Reuters gold report. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28 and economists expect a December hike, Reuters reported in a separate story carried by Kitco. Our Fed October meeting explainer covers the debate inside the committee.

US data: factories stronger, input prices softer

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September, above the 54.5 economists polled by Reuters had expected, according to a Reuters report carried by Kitco. The prices-paid index eased to 75.2 from 77.9, below the 77.5 forecast. A reading above 50 signals expansion. Softer input prices fit with Monday's easing of rate fears.

A softer dollar

The dollar was down 0.3% at 101.63 against a basket of currencies during Monday's session, after touching a one-month low, a Reuters currency report carried by Kitco said. Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said: "Risk is more on, the oil price is down and so it's slightly more risk-friendly, slightly more dollar negative." By 21:20 UTC the index had trimmed its fall to 0.11%, Yahoo Finance data show. Grant described the weaker dollar as a small tailwind for gold.

Friday's forced selling faded

Friday's fall came as a sell-off in tech and AI-linked stocks spread across markets and margin calls forced sales of safe-haven assets, including gold, the Reuters gold report said. Trading Economics said Monday's move recovered part of that drop from a one-year low of $3,870.27. Reuters also said gold's 14-day relative strength index, a momentum gauge, rose to about 37 from below 30 on Friday, moving out of what traders call oversold territory. This describes momentum only and is not a forecast.

What it means

Analysis. Monday's rebound came mainly through the oil-inflation channel rather than from bond markets: the 10-year real yield edged higher to 2.62%. Spot gold remained $54.30 below the $4,000 mark at 21:28 UTC.

Political & policy watch

• US midterms. Americans vote on November 3 on whether Democrats can take control of Congress from President Donald Trump's Republican Party. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House, while the Senate is less certain, according to the Reuters currency report. Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said the fiscal outlook was unlikely to change enough to matter for gold, and that persistent deficits and debt should remain a longer-term support, the Reuters gold report said.
• Iran talks. An official said Iranian negotiators had left the talks, a draft proposal was circulating and a follow-up meeting was possible, according to the Reuters oil report. Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have increased, it added.
• US Treasury borrowing. The Treasury cut its fourth-quarter borrowing estimate to $618 billion, $10 billion less than its August projection, and expects to borrow $800 billion in January-March, a Reuters report carried by Kitco said. Its quarterly refunding announcement is due on November 4.

What to watch next

• November 3: US midterm elections.
• November 4: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement, according to Reuters.
• Later in the week: US October jobs data, Reuters reported.
• December 8–9: The Fed's next policy meeting, according to Reuters. See our central bank meeting calendar.
• Each London business day: LBMA Gold Price AM (10:30 London) and PM (15:00 London) benchmarks.

Risk checklist for readers

• Elections can move prices. Results that change expectations for US spending, debt or foreign policy can shift the dollar, yields and gold quickly.
• Oil headlines matter. News on the Iran talks can move oil, inflation expectations and the rate outlook that gold responds to, sometimes within hours.
• Drivers can conflict. On Monday gold rose even as real yields edged up; no single indicator explains every move.
• Different feeds, different closes. Spot and futures prices use different cut-off times, so reported daily changes can differ.
• Local prices also depend on currencies. For buyers in Indonesia, Thailand or elsewhere in ASEAN, the local gold price moves with both XAU/USD and the exchange rate.
• Leverage magnifies losses. Futures and margin products can force selling in fast markets, as on Friday.
• Use primary data. The Federal Reserve, US Treasury, CME Group, LBMA and the World Gold Council publish the figures behind most headlines.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.