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European Q3 earnings seen up 21.9%, energy forecast up 134.1%

Refining is the main engine: Shell, BP and TotalEnergies have flagged sharply higher third-quarter refining margins. Without energy, STOXX Europe 600 earnings growth is seen at just 8.4%.

By Rowan Ashby Published 22.10.26 21:16 UTC 6 min read

European Q3 earnings seen up 21.9%, energy forecast up 134.1% — Unknown /

Key takeaways

European Q3 earnings for STOXX Europe 600 companies are now expected to rise 21.9% from a year earlier, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data reported by Reuters on Oct. 22, 2026. A week earlier the estimate was 20.7%.
Energy does most of the work. Energy companies are forecast to grow earnings by 134.1%, while the rest of the index is expected to grow by just 8.4%.
Refining is the main engine. Shell, BP and TotalEnergies have all flagged sharply higher third-quarter refining margins in their pre-results updates.
Brent crude traded between about $111 and $113 a barrel on Oct. 22. Reports linked the move to Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and stalled diplomacy with Iran.
Eni reports on Oct. 23, Equinor on Oct. 28, Shell and TotalEnergies on Oct. 29, and BP on Oct. 30.

European Q3 earnings: how big is the energy windfall?

European Q3 earnings for STOXX Europe 600 companies are expected to rise 21.9%, LSEG I/B/E/S data show. Energy companies are forecast to grow earnings 134.1%, while the rest of the index is seen growing just 8.4%. For the latest session, see our Europe stocks brief for Oct. 23.

The estimate combines actual results from the 47 companies that had already reported with consensus forecasts for the rest. It has been rising during October. Reuters reported a 21% forecast on Oct. 9, up from 19.4% a week before that. The forecast was 20.7% in mid-October and has now reached 21.9%. Not every report beat: Volvo Cars shares fell a record 24.2% after a SEK 3.7 billion Q3 operating loss.

The split is the important part. LSEG data puts expected energy-sector earnings growth at 134.1% year on year. Excluding energy, average growth for the STOXX 600 falls to 8.4%. That is still positive, but it is a different picture from the headline.

Energy versus the rest of the index

The table below tracks how the LSEG I/B/E/S estimates for the third quarter have changed in recent Reuters reports.

LSEG I/B/E/S Q3 2026 estimate (y/y)	Reported Oct. 9	Reported Oct. 22
STOXX Europe 600 earnings growth	21.0%	21.9%
Energy sector earnings growth	115.9%	134.1%
STOXX 600 excluding energy	9.7%	8.4%
STOXX 600 revenue growth	10.6%	13.3%

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S, as reported by Reuters (republished by Hargreaves Lansdown on Oct. 9 and Global Banking & Finance Review on Oct. 22, 2026). The Oct. 22 figures include 47 companies that had already reported.

Two trends stand out. The energy forecast has risen by about 18 percentage points in two weeks, while the ex-energy forecast has slipped by more than a point. More of the headline growth now depends on the energy sector. Revenue expectations have also risen. Reuters said the 13.3% revenue forecast would be the best since the third quarter of 2022, which also partly reflects higher fuel prices passing through to sales.

Outside energy, the picture is mixed. The Oct. 9 report said basic materials were also contributing to growth, but it forecast a 71.5% fall in real estate earnings. Hermès, one of the first large companies to report, showed the pressure on consumer names: its quarterly sales growth slowed to 4.3% as Chinese demand weakened.

Why are oil companies' profits up so much?

Refining margins have surged

The largest single driver is the gap between crude oil costs and the price of fuels such as diesel and gasoline. The majors' own pre-results updates show how far it widened in the third quarter:

Shell said in its Oct. 7 quarterly update note that its indicative refining margin rose to $42 a barrel in the third quarter, from $24 in the second. Several outlets described this as a record for the company. Shell also guided refinery utilisation lower, to 93%–97%, because low Rhine water levels affected its Rheinland refinery, and it expected its chemicals margin to fall.
BP said in its Oct. 13 trading statement that stronger realised refining margins would add $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion to underlying profit compared with the second quarter. It also flagged $3.0 billion to $4.5 billion of impairments, mainly in its gas and low-carbon businesses, which it excludes from underlying profit.
TotalEnergies said its European refining margin averaged $33.2 a barrel in the quarter, almost four times the $8.4 a year earlier. Its average LNG price rose to $12.28 per million British thermal units from $8.91.

Crude prices and supply disruption

Crude prices are much higher than a year ago. TotalEnergies said Brent averaged $97.0 a barrel in the third quarter, compared with $69.1 a year earlier. Reuters attributed the gains in the energy sector to the US-Israeli war with Iran and to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, which reduced fuel exports from a major supplier. Reuters also said trading desks at the majors had benefited from the volatility.

The fourth quarter has started with prices even higher. Oilprice.com reported Brent at $111.10 a barrel early on Oct. 22 (about 05:30 UTC), up about 2%. It said the rise followed Houthi strikes on an oil field and an airport in Saudi Arabia, a US order for non-emergency staff to leave the kingdom, and comments from Iranian officials that cast doubt on peace talks. Fortune's daily tracker put Brent at $113.21 at 8:00 a.m. ET (12:00 UTC), against $64.49 a year earlier. Bullquill's Oil daily brief covers the day-to-day moves.

Energy majors' Q3 results calendar

Company	Q3 2026 results date	Pre-results signal
Eni	Oct. 23	Results and webcast on the same day (company website)
Equinor	Oct. 28	Analyst consensus invitation published Oct. 7
Shell	Oct. 29	Refining margin $42/bbl vs $24/bbl in Q2
TotalEnergies	Oct. 29	European refining margin $33.2/bbl vs $8.4/bbl a year earlier
BP	Oct. 30	Refining boost of $1.9bn–$2.1bn vs Q2; $3.0bn–$4.5bn impairments

Sources: company investor pages and pre-results statements; AJ Bell; Investing.com via Yahoo Finance. Dates are as published by the companies and may change.

These results will show whether the forecasts were right. Pre-results updates are indicative, and the companies say final figures can differ. Shell's results will also show how far lower chemicals margins and the Rheinland outage offset its refining gains. For background on Shell's UK gas plans, see our report on the Jackdaw gas field approval.

What it means

A strong headline growth number can hide uneven conditions underneath. For the STOXX 600, an energy-led quarter means aggregate earnings growth says relatively little about domestic demand, consumer spending or industrial activity in Europe. The 8.4% ex-energy forecast is a better guide to the rest of the economy, and it has been edging down this month.

The energy windfall also rests on conditions that can change quickly. Refining margins and crude prices rose because of war and supply disruption, so a ceasefire, a diplomatic breakthrough or a recovery in Russian refinery output could reverse them. High fuel prices also weigh on energy-intensive industries and household budgets, which feeds into inflation and the interest-rate debate. Bullquill's coverage of France's 10-year bond yield and the Europe stocks daily brief follows those pressures.

Large energy profits are also likely to renew political debate in Europe. Campaign group Transport & Environment, for example, has published its own estimates of the windfall profits oil companies have made in Europe. No new European windfall tax proposals linked to the third-quarter results had been confirmed as of Oct. 22.

Several questions will remain open until the companies report: how much of the gain came from trading, whether buyback plans change, and what management teams expect for fourth-quarter margins.

Frequently asked questions

How much are European company earnings expected to grow in Q3 2026?

According to LSEG I/B/E/S data reported by Reuters on Oct. 22, 2026, STOXX Europe 600 earnings are expected to rise 21.9% year on year, combining 47 reported results with forecasts for the rest.

How much of Europe's Q3 earnings growth comes from energy?

Most of it. LSEG data put expected energy-sector earnings growth at 134.1%, while growth for the STOXX 600 excluding energy is forecast at 8.4%.

Why are oil companies' profits rising so much?

Refining margins have surged and crude prices are far above year-earlier levels. Shell reported an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel versus $24 in Q2, and Reuters linked the energy gains to the US-Israeli war with Iran and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.