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Bitcoin midterm cycle: 2026 low came 125 days before the vote
Past bitcoin cycle lows arrived weeks after US midterm elections. This year the low came in July, and the data suggests the old pattern was timing, not cause.
Key takeaways
- In the last three US midterm cycles, bitcoin hit its cycle low after election day: about 71 days after the 2014 vote, 38 days after 2018 and 13 days after 2022, according to a CoinDesk analysis published on Oct. 23, 2026.
- In 2026 the order is reversed. The year's low so far, $57,850 on July 1, came about 125 days before the Nov. 3 election.
- Bitcoin traded near $81,443 at 18:11 UTC on Oct. 23, 2026 (CoinGecko), roughly 41% above the July low.
- The Nasdaq-100 tracker Invesco QQQ shows no consistent midterm pattern either. It fell before the 2018 and 2022 votes but rose before the 2014 vote.
- Midterm years and bitcoin's halving-driven cycle both repeat every four years, so the old "pattern" may be a coincidence of timing rather than an election effect.
The bitcoin midterm cycle pattern has broken in 2026. In 2014, 2018 and 2022, bitcoin bottomed 13 to 71 days after the US midterm vote. This year, the low of $57,850 came on July 1, about 125 days before the Nov. 3 election.
The comparison comes from a CoinDesk markets analysis by James Van Straten, published 11 days before election day. The piece concluded that bitcoin "appears to have decoupled from midterm cycle bottom history." This article sets out the data behind that view, checks the dates against other records, and explains why the link between elections and bitcoin lows was always weak.
Bitcoin midterm cycle: when past lows arrived
The Federal Election Commission lists Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, as the next regularly scheduled federal general election. The three previous midterms were held on Nov. 4, 2014, Nov. 6, 2018, and Nov. 8, 2022. In each case, bitcoin's cycle bottom followed the vote.
| Midterm year | Election day | Bitcoin cycle low | Approx. low price | Timing vs. election | Drop in prior ~6 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Nov. 4, 2014 | Jan. 14, 2015 | About $170–$180 | About 71 days after | Not reported |
| 2018 | Nov. 6, 2018 | Mid-December 2018 | About $3,100–$3,200 | About 38 days after | About 29% |
| 2022 | Nov. 8, 2022 | Late November 2022 | About $15,500 | About 13 days after | About 37% |
| 2026 | Nov. 3, 2026 | July 1, 2026 (year low to date) | $57,850 | About 125 days before | Not applicable |
Day counts and pre-election declines: CoinDesk (Oct. 23, 2026). Low prices: contemporaneous reports from Fortune (2015), CryptoSlate and CryptoPotato (2018), and Euronews and FXStreet (2022). Exact lows vary by exchange and data provider, so prices are shown as ranges.
2014: the Bitstamp hack and a January low
Bitcoin slid through late 2014 and fell below $200 on Jan. 14, 2015. Fortune reported a low of $170.08 that morning. The sell-off came days after Bitstamp, then one of the largest exchanges, suspended services because it believed an operational wallet had been compromised on Jan. 4.
2018: the end of a long bear market
The 2018 low ended a year-long decline from the late-2017 peak. CryptoSlate dates the bottom to Dec. 15, 2018, with a low of $3,215, while other trackers record about $3,122. The final leg down followed the Bitcoin Cash hard fork in November 2018 and the "hash war" between rival miners.
2022: the FTX collapse
The 2022 low was driven by a crypto-specific shock. FTX filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 11, 2022, three days after the vote. Euronews reported that bitcoin touched $15,480, its lowest since November 2020, and FXStreet recorded a dip to about $15,425 on Nov. 22.
Why the 2026 low came early
This cycle moved faster. Bitcoin set its all-time high of about $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025, according to a Reuters figure cited by Plus500. Exact readings differ slightly by exchange. It then fell to $80,659 by Nov. 21, 2025, Business Standard reported, and kept falling into mid-2026.
The decline sped up in late June. Blockchain.news reported on July 1 that bitcoin had dropped below $58,000 for the first time in 652 days, after June closed down 20.48%. 24/7 Wall St. described a 21-month low near $57,800. CoinDesk puts the July 1 low at $57,850. That is roughly 54% below the October 2025 peak, by Bullquill's calculation.
Since then, the recovery has been uneven. CoinDesk said bitcoin was down about 6% over the 30 days to Oct. 22 but up about 26% over 90 days. US spot bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $635.49 million on Oct. 22, according to SoSoValue data reported by TokenPost. Our guide to reading bitcoin ETF flows explains how those daily figures are compiled.
| Bitcoin data point | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-time high | About $126,080 | Oct. 6, 2025 | Reuters via Plus500 |
| 2026 low to date | $57,850 | July 1, 2026 | CoinDesk |
| Price cited by CoinDesk | About $81,455 | Oct. 22, 2026 | CoinDesk |
| Spot price | $81,443 (+0.5% in 24 hours) | 18:11 UTC, Oct. 23, 2026 | CoinGecko |
| Change over 30 days / 90 days | About −6% / +26% | To Oct. 22, 2026 | CoinDesk |
QQQ and the midterm effect in tech stocks
CoinDesk compared bitcoin with the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100. Bitcoin has often moved with large US tech stocks. The stock data does not show a reliable midterm rule either.
| Midterm year | QQQ move around the vote |
|---|---|
| 2014 | Rose about 17% in the six months before the election |
| 2018 | Fell about 23% from end-September to the December low, much of it after election day |
| 2022 | Fell about 17% in the three months before the election |
| 2026 | Record high of $762.86 on Oct. 6; about −6% over 30 days and +3% over 90 days to Oct. 22 |
Source: CoinDesk, Oct. 23, 2026.
Two of three cycles show weakness before or around the vote, and one shows a strong rally. With so few examples, the stock market tells us little about how bitcoin should behave in a midterm year.
Coincidence or cause?
There are three reasons to treat the bitcoin midterm cycle as a pattern of timing rather than a cause.
- Both calendars run on four years. Bitcoin's block reward halves about every four years: Nov. 28, 2012, July 9, 2016, May 11, 2020 and April 20, 2024, when block 840,000 was mined. Midterms are also held every four years, two years after each presidential vote. So a halving-driven cycle and the election calendar will always line up, even if neither affects the other.
- Each low had its own trigger. The 2015 low followed an exchange hack, the 2018 low a hash war, and the 2022 low the collapse of FTX. None of these was caused by the election result.
- Three examples is a tiny sample. Bitcoin has only been through three midterms with a liquid market. Three data points cannot separate an election effect from chance.
CoinDesk reached a similar conclusion. Its analysis said bitcoin's midterm-year weakness "reflects its own market cycles more consistently than an election effect." In 2026 the peak came earlier, in October 2025, and the decline ran its course before the campaign season began.
What it means
For readers following the "bitcoin midterm cycle" idea, the 2026 data weakens it. The July low broke the record of post-election bottoms. The event that rule pointed to, a low weeks after election day, would now have to come below $57,850 to count as a new cycle low. Nothing in the record says that will or will not happen.
Elections can still move markets through policy. Crypto regulation, taxes and the makeup of congressional committees all depend on the result. Prediction markets are already pricing the outcome; our explainer on how crypto prediction market contracts work covers how those prices are set. ETF flows and long-term allocation models also matter, as discussed in our pieces on JPMorgan's 10% bitcoin decade assumption and bitcoin downside-protection ETFs.
What remains unknown is how much of bitcoin's path into year-end will depend on the vote itself. The halving cycle, liquidity and ETF demand have explained past lows better than the election calendar. For daily price context, see the latest crypto daily brief.
Frequently asked questions
What is the bitcoin midterm cycle?
It is the observation that bitcoin's cycle lows in 2014, 2018 and 2022 came shortly after US midterm elections: about 71, 38 and 13 days after the vote, according to CoinDesk. In 2026 the year's low so far, $57,850 on July 1, came about 125 days before the Nov. 3 election.
When is the 2026 US midterm election?
The Federal Election Commission lists Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, as the next regularly scheduled federal general election date.
Do US elections cause bitcoin bottoms?
There is no evidence they do. Each past low had a crypto-specific trigger, such as the Bitstamp hack in 2015, the Bitcoin Cash hash war in 2018 and the FTX collapse in 2022. Midterms and bitcoin halvings both repeat every four years, so their timing lines up by coincidence.
How far is bitcoin above its 2026 low?
Bitcoin traded near $81,443 at 18:11 UTC on Oct. 23, 2026, according to CoinGecko, roughly 41% above the July 1 low of $57,850.
Sources
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin appears to have decoupled from midterm cycle bottom history (Oct. 23, 2026)
- FEC: Electioneering communications periods, general election 2026
- CoinGecko: Bitcoin historical data and spot price
- Blockchain.news: Bitcoin drops below $58,000, lowest in 652 days (July 1, 2026)
- 24/7 Wall St.: Bitcoin in July 2026, 21-month low
- Fortune: Bitcoin continues downward spiral, plunges below $200 (Jan. 14, 2015)
- CryptoSlate: Is bitcoin bottoming out like it did a year ago?
- CryptoPotato: One year ago bitcoin nailed the 2018 bear market bottom at $3,122
- Euronews: Bitcoin plunges to a two-year low as FTX collapse spreads (Nov. 22, 2022)
- FXStreet: Deconstructing the bitcoin price crash after FTX (Nov. 23, 2022)
- Plus500 (citing Reuters): Bitcoin hits record high above $125,000
- Business Standard: Bitcoin's 2025 record highs and sharp corrections
- Nasdaq: When is the next bitcoin halving?
- LookIntoBitcoin: Complete list of bitcoin halving dates
- TokenPost: $635.49 million exits US spot bitcoin ETFs in a day (SoSoValue data)
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
