Philippines inflation hits 7.8% in October 2026, highest since 2023

Key takeaways

• Philippine headline inflation rose to 7.8% year on year in October 2026 from 7.2% in September 2026 and 1.7% in October 2025, Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data released on Nov 5, 2026 showed.
• It was the fastest pace since February 2023, when inflation reached 8.6%, and fell inside the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecast range of 7.1% to 8.1% for October 2026.
• Transport inflation jumped to 20.1% from 14.6%, while core inflation climbed to 5.4%, the highest since September 2023, according to The Philippine Star.
• Inflation averaged 5.6% from January to October 2026, above the government's 2% to 4% target band.
• Economists quoted after the release are split on the BSP's Dec 17, 2026 meeting: ING and Security Bank see a 25-basis-point hike as the base case, while Deutsche Bank argued for giving earlier hikes time to work.

Philippines inflation October 2026: the headline numbers

Consumer prices in the Philippines climbed at a 7.8% annual rate in October 2026, a 44-month high, as fuel, electricity and transport fares outran easing food costs. The PSA published the figure on Thursday, Nov 5, 2026, and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa presented it at a press conference that day, PTV News reported.

The print was slightly above economists' expectations. ING said in a note by Deepali Bhargava, its regional head of research for Asia-Pacific, that consensus had been 7.6% and that the result matched ING's own forecast. The Manila Times reported that the median in its poll of analysts was 7.7%.

The increase was broad across regions. Inflation in the National Capital Region rose to 5.9% from 5.3% in September 2026, while areas outside the capital region saw prices rise 8.2%, up from 7.6%, according to PTV News. The Philippine Star reported that the purchasing power of the peso stood at 72 centavos in October 2026 measured against 2018 prices.

What drove October 2026 inflation

Three commodity groups accounted for the largest shares of overall inflation in October 2026, DZRH reported, citing the PSA. Transport, housing and utilities, and food together explained roughly three-quarters of the headline rate.

According to DZRH, food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 2.4 percentage points (30.2% of the total), housing and utilities 1.9 points (24.8%) and transport 1.8 points (23.5%).

Fuel, electricity and fares

ING said the acceleration "was almost entirely driven by higher fuel and electricity prices," which together added about 70 basis points to the headline rate. The Philippine Star reported on Nov 7, 2026 that the electricity, gas and other fuels sub-index rose 19.7%. Mapa told reporters that faster increases in fuel-related prices "contributed to the higher inflation rate for the transport sector," The Manila Times reported.

Food eased, but rice stayed high

Food inflation slowed as better weather and supply helped fish and vegetable prices, The Philippine Star reported. The Manila Times said fish inflation eased to 5.0% from 7.4% and vegetables to 5.7% from 10.5%. Rice was the exception: rice inflation edged up to 20.7%, the highest since July 2024, according to The Philippine Star. ING flagged upside risks to food from rising rice prices across Asia and elevated vegetable oil and corn prices.

Note on food figures: DZRH reported the broader "food and non-alcoholic beverages" group at 6.1%, while The Philippine Star and The Manila Times reported the narrower food index at 6.4%. Both are listed separately in the table above.

Core inflation broadened

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy items, rose to 5.4% from 4.8% in September 2026 and 2.5% in October 2025, The Manila Times reported; a separate Philippine Star report on Nov 7, 2026 put the September 2026 core rate at 4.7%. ING attributed the rise to higher transport fares and stronger price pressures in restaurant and hotel services, and said core inflation had been above the central bank's target for six straight months.

BSP response and the Dec 17, 2026 Monetary Board meeting

Before the release, the BSP had projected October 2026 inflation of 7.1% to 8.1%. In its Oct 30, 2026 statement, carried by GMA News, the central bank said: "Upward price pressures are likely to come from higher prices of domestic fuel, electricity, and transport fares." After the PSA data, the BSP said the outcome was consistent with its view that inflation will stay elevated in coming months and that it "will remain vigilant and guided by incoming data," The Manila Times reported.

The Monetary Board raised its target reverse repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% on Oct 22, 2026, its fourth straight meeting with a hike, GMA News reported. The overnight deposit rate was set at 5.0% and the overnight lending rate at 6.0%. Governor Eli Remolona said then: "We took this decisive option because we forecast that inflation will accelerate further in the coming months." The BSP kept its 2026 average inflation forecast at 6.1%, raised its 2027 forecast to 6.0% from 5.4% and left 2028 at 3.3%, according to GMA News.

The next rate-setting meeting is on Dec 17, 2026, The Manila Times reported.

What economists expect

• ING: "a 25bp rate hike in December remains our base case," Bhargava wrote, adding that the case for another 50-basis-point move looked limited if oil prices keep easing and third-quarter 2026 GDP data, due the following week, come in weak.
• Security Bank: chief economist Angelo Taningco expects a 25-basis-point hike that would take the policy rate to 5.75%, and sees inflation staying below 8% in November and December 2026, The Philippine Star reported.
• Chinabank Research: said inflation could peak "just above eight percent" in November 2026 and that the outlook "keeps the door open for another 25-basis-point BSP rate hike in December," according to The Philippine Star.
• RCBC: chief economist Michael Ricafort expects inflation of 7% to 8% through about February 2027 and said the BSP may signal further tightening at the Dec 17, 2026 meeting, The Manila Times reported.
• Deutsche Bank: economist Junjie Huang said "the mixed inflation signals argue for giving previous hikes time to work before considering further action in the near term," according to The Philippine Star, which added that Deutsche Bank sees the October 2026 hike as likely sufficient for now.

What it means for ASEAN investors

For readers tracking Southeast Asian rates and currencies, the October 2026 print extends a run of above-target inflation in the Philippines. The 5.6% average for January to October 2026 already sits above the 2% to 4% target band, The Manila Times and The Philippine Star reported, and the BSP's own forecasts published on Oct 22, 2026 do not bring inflation back near target until 2028.

The policy debate now hinges on growth as much as prices. ING and Chinabank Research both said the third-quarter 2026 GDP release would shape the December decision, and Deutsche Bank warned that another hike could weigh on already-soft domestic demand, The Philippine Star reported. Security Bank expects third-quarter 2026 growth to slow to 2.7%.

Energy remains the swing factor. ING noted that global oil prices had fallen sharply in recent weeks, which it said should ease fuel and transport costs. For background, see our analysis of how the Brent slump affects ASEAN oil importers and exporters, our report on the Philippine peso's record low after the BSP's October 2026 hike, and our coverage of Thailand's October 2026 inflation data.

What to watch next

• Third-quarter 2026 GDP data from the PSA, which ING said were due the week after the inflation release.
• November 2026 inflation data and any BSP forecast range for the month; Chinabank Research and Security Bank differ on whether the rate crosses 8%.
• The Monetary Board's rate decision on Dec 17, 2026.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.