US Halloween candy sales fall 6.7% as prices and gas costs climb

Key takeaways

• US Halloween candy sales fell 6.7% in the four weeks to Oct. 17, 2026, compared with a year earlier, according to NielsenIQ data reported by the Associated Press.
• The slump started early: candy sales were down 11.7% in mid-September, wiping out the preseason gains of the previous two years.
• Candy and gum prices are 44% higher than five years ago, while food eaten at home rose 22.5% over the same period, according to government data cited by AP.
• Gasoline averaged $4.30 a gallon nationally on Oct. 24, about 40% above a year earlier, according to AAA. NielsenIQ says fuel costs are deepening shoppers' affordability worries.
• The National Confectioners Association says demand is still "incredibly strong" and that the peak Halloween buying week has only just begun.

US Halloween candy sales fell 6.7% in the four weeks to Oct. 17 compared with a year earlier, according to NielsenIQ data reported by the Associated Press on Oct. 24. Chocolate prices and fuel costs are squeezing budgets with one week left before Oct. 31.

Halloween candy sales: what the NielsenIQ data shows

The weakness is not limited to the last few weeks. According to the AP report, NielsenIQ measured an 11.7% drop in candy sales in mid-September, the point when retailers usually see an early wave of seasonal buying. That decline erased the preseason gains recorded in 2024 and 2025.

The pattern of what shoppers are still buying is telling. Small bags were the only pack size with sales growth through mid-October, while large and extra-large bags showed the steepest declines. Households appear to be buying smaller amounts more often rather than stocking up early.

Cheaper candy has not changed the picture. NielsenIQ found that non-chocolate Halloween candy, such as gummies and lollipops, averaged $6.08 a pound in the nine weeks to Oct. 17, about 3% less than a year earlier. Sales of those products still did not rise, which suggests the problem is overall spending power rather than chocolate prices alone.

Chris Costagli, a vice president at NielsenIQ, told AP that many consumers feel they cannot afford the usual Halloween haul after paying more for fuel, housing, clothing and groceries. He said high gas prices have made those affordability concerns worse.

Why is chocolate so expensive in 2026?

Chocolate prices still reflect the cocoa shock of the past two years. West Africa supplies roughly 70% of the world's cocoa. Poor weather there, combined with speculative futures trading, pushed global cocoa prices to a record $10,710 per metric ton in January 2025, according to US Bureau of Labor Statistics figures cited by AP.

Prices then fell sharply, reaching $3,241 per ton in March 2026, AP reported. The relief was brief. Cocoa climbed again in the spring as the war involving Iran disrupted fertilizer supplies to African farms. Forecasters also expect El Niño to bring hot, dry conditions to West Africa through February, which could hurt the next harvest.

On the futures market, the December New York cocoa contract traded at $5,560 per metric ton at 17:30 UTC on Oct. 23, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance data for ICE Futures U.S. That is well below the 2025 peak but far above the spring low. Recent trading has been mixed. Barchart reported that inventories in ICE-monitored warehouses reached a 2.5-year high of 3,655,960 bags. It also reported that Ivory Coast farmers delivered 78,212 tons to ports between Oct. 1 and Oct. 18, down 41% from a year earlier.

Manufacturers buy cocoa months in advance, so lower futures prices take time to reach store shelves. Shoppers are still paying prices set when cocoa was far more expensive. AP gave one example: Aldi this week advertised a 135-piece Mars variety pack, including Snickers and Milky Way, for $19.87. That is close to what a 250-piece pack cost five years ago.

Key numbers behind the Halloween candy slowdown

Gas prices and the wider affordability squeeze

Candy is a small item in a household budget, but it is easy to cut. AAA's national average for regular gasoline was $4.2957 a gallon on Oct. 24, compared with $3.0679 a year earlier, an increase of about 40%. Prices have eased a little in recent weeks: the month-ago average was $4.48. Diesel averaged $6.34. Bullquill covered how US gas prices are straining household budgets and food banks earlier this week.

Fuel costs feed directly into wider inflation. Our explainer on how oil price shocks hit inflation and interest rates describes how that pass-through works. Consumer mood is weak too: the University of Michigan's sentiment index stood at 48.0 in October, the second-lowest reading on record, as detailed in our report on US consumer sentiment in October 2026. Against that backdrop, fewer and smaller candy purchases fit a broader pattern of careful spending on non-essentials.

The industry's counter-view: "Halloween is not doomed"

The confectionery industry argues it is too early to call a bad season. In a statement on Oct. 23, the National Confectioners Association, whose members include Mars, Ferrara and Smarties Candy Co., said it remained optimistic. The trade group said consumer enthusiasm "remains incredibly strong" and that the peak period for Halloween buying was only beginning.

Shopping habits support that view to some degree. Sally Lyons Wyatt, a global executive vice president at the market research firm Circana, told AP that shoppers are making smaller, more frequent grocery trips and buying closer to when they need items. She said many people may simply be waiting until the final days before Halloween. "I do believe we will still see softness overall with candy, but I don't think Halloween is doomed," she told AP.

Survey data from earlier in the season also pointed to steady participation. The National Retail Federation's annual Halloween survey, released on Sept. 22, projected total spending of $13.5 billion, against a record $13.1 billion in 2025. Average spending was expected to reach $115.14 per person. Candy was the most popular category: 96% of people celebrating planned to buy it, for an estimated $4.1 billion. The NRF also found that 39% of shoppers planned to use discount stores, the most popular destination. The survey of 7,889 adults was conducted on Sept. 1–9, before NielsenIQ recorded the late-season slowdown.

What it means

For shoppers, the data suggests discounts are possible in the final week. Retailers stocked up for a normal season, and slow sell-through of large bags could lead to price cuts close to Oct. 31 or after the holiday. Whether that happens depends on the last-minute rush that the NCA and Circana expect.

For confectioners, Halloween is a key test of how far chocolate prices can rise before people buy less. Shoppers are moving to smaller packs and buying less overall, even though non-chocolate candy got cheaper. That suggests demand is now held back by household budgets as much as by the price of cocoa. Weaker Ivory Coast deliveries and the El Niño outlook mean cocoa costs could stay high into 2027.

For the wider economy, a weak Halloween candy season would be one more sign that higher fuel prices are pushing consumers to cut back on extras before the holiday shopping season. The next official inflation reading, the October Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is scheduled for Nov. 10, 2026. Final Halloween sales figures from NielsenIQ and Circana will show whether the late rush came.

Sources

• The Associated Press via NBC News — Halloween candy sales are off to a slow start amid high chocolate prices and affordability concerns (Oct. 24, 2026)
• The Associated Press via KSAT — same report, syndicated (Oct. 24, 2026)
• AAA — Gas Prices, national averages (Oct. 24, 2026)
• National Retail Federation — Halloween survey shows consumer spending expected to reach $13.5 billion (Sept. 22, 2026)
• Yahoo Finance — Cocoa futures (CC=F), ICE Futures U.S. (data as of Oct. 23, 2026, 17:30 UTC)
• Barchart via TradingView — Cocoa prices fall on rising ICE inventories and higher Nigerian exports (October 2026)
• National Confectioners Association
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index release schedule

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.