Israel election 2026: Eisenkot leads Likud in polls, no bloc at 61

Key takeaways

• About 7.3 million eligible voters choose the 26th Knesset on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, the first national vote since the October 7, 2023 attack and the Gaza war.
• The last TV polls published before election day put Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud by 2 to 3 seats.
• No camp reaches the 61 seats needed to govern in those polls, so Arab-majority parties, projected at 14 to 16 seats, could decide who governs.
• Official results are due by November 4; coalition talks could be long, and another election cannot be ruled out.

The Israel election 2026 on Tuesday, October 27, puts Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership to a direct test: final TV polls show former army chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar 2 to 3 seats ahead of Likud, but neither camp reaches the 61 seats needed to govern.

The vote has drawn heavy global attention, including a BBC explainer that calls it one of the most important elections in Israel's history. The reasons are the war, the questions over who is to blame for the failures of October 7, a long fight over the courts, and a close race between two very different leaders.

What happened: the race on the eve of the Israel election

The outgoing Knesset formally dissolved on July 17, 2026, and election day was set for October 27, the latest date the law allows. According to Britannica, the outgoing Knesset is the first since 1988 to serve its full term without an early dissolution. Ynet reports that about 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to vote. Haaretz puts the exact figure at 7,331,981.

Israel's 120 seats are filled by national party lists. A party needs 3.25% of the vote to enter the Knesset, and 38 lists are on the ballot. Soldiers began voting early at about 850 military polling stations, and voting at Israeli diplomatic missions abroad began on October 15, according to the Times of Israel.

The final polls from Israel's three main TV channels were published on Friday, October 23, according to Haaretz and Ynet. All three put Eisenkot's Yashar first:

Seats out of 120; 61 needed for a majority. Sources: Haaretz and Ynet, October 23, 2026.

Not every poll agrees. Channel 14 and i24NEWS have shown results much better for Likud, and the Times of Israel's sister site Zman Yisrael had Yashar ahead 26 to 20 in mid-October fieldwork. With pollsters this far apart, the result is uncertain.

Why this election matters so much

The first vote since October 7

The last election was held in November 2022, less than a year before Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack. This is the first time voters can judge the government that was in power that day and the war that followed in Gaza. Netanyahu has made Iran, which he calls an existential threat, the centre of his campaign. His opponents focus on accountability for the security failures.

A former army chief against Israel's longest-serving prime minister

Netanyahu has led Israel for longer than any other prime minister and remains on trial on corruption charges, which he denies. Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, joined the wartime emergency government with Benny Gantz after October 7, later left it, and then split from Gantz's party to found Yashar. He has since become Netanyahu's main challenger. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are running on a joint list, B'Yachad, and Gantz's Blue and White withdrew from the race on October 19.

The courts, the draft and the shape of the state

The outgoing government's 2023 plan to overhaul the courts set off months of mass protests. In January 2024 the Supreme Court struck down a key part of it by a vote of 8 to 7. Plans to exempt ultra-Orthodox men from military service also split the coalition: United Torah Judaism left the government in July 2025, and Shas withdrew its ministers soon after. The next coalition will decide both questions.

What we know and what we don't know yet

• Known: polls close on Tuesday night, local time, and TV exit polls follow. Official results are due by November 4.
• Known: on September 23 the Supreme Court overturned the Central Elections Committee's ban on Ra'am and the Joint List, so both Arab-majority lists are on the ballot.
• Not known: whether any camp will reach 61 seats, and whether Arab-majority parties would back a government. In 2021 Ra'am became the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli coalition.
• Not known: how smaller lists near the 3.25% threshold will do. Each list that falls just short can swing several seats between the blocs.

What it means

After the vote, President Isaac Herzog consults the parties and asks the lawmaker with the best chance of building a majority to form a government. As Ynet notes, "winning the largest number of seats is not the same as securing the premiership." If Netanyahu's bloc again falls short of 61 seats, he would need defectors from the other side. Eisenkot's camp could only govern with outside support, which may have to come from Arab parties. If neither can build a coalition, Israel could face more weeks of talks or even another election.

For the region, the outcome will shape Israel's policy toward Gaza, the West Bank and Iran at a tense time. Bullquill has covered recent events there, including the Hebron military operation and the deadlock in US-Iran talks. More coverage is on our Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu topic pages.