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# US consumer sentiment October 2026: 48.0, second-lowest on record
- URL: https://bullquill.com/us-consumer-sentiment-october-2026-near-record-low/
- Published: 2026-10-23T20:14:59.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-23T20:26:19.000Z
- Description: The final reading was nearly unchanged from September's 48.1 but well above the preliminary 46.3, while year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.7%, the highest since May.
- Author: Rowan Ashby
- Tags: Economy, University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations, Federal Reserve, #lang-en, #tr-us-consumer-sentiment-october-2026-near-record-low

## Key takeaways

- The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for October 2026 was **48.0**, down just 0.1 point from September's 48.1 and 10.4% lower than a year earlier.
- Al Jazeera and The Epoch Times both describe the reading as the second-lowest on record. Only May 2026, at 44.8, was lower.
- The final figure came in well above the preliminary October estimate of 46.3, released on October 9.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and long-run expectations to 3.5%. Both measures have now risen two months in a row and are at their highest since May.
- The survey's director, Joanne Hsu, says purchasing power is the main thing shaping how consumers see the economy. Higher fuel and grocery prices are a big part of that.

US consumer sentiment was 48.0 in October 2026, the final University of Michigan reading showed on October 23, the second-lowest on record after May's 44.8\. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, the highest since May.

The index comes from the Surveys of Consumers, which the university's Institute for Social Research in Ann Arbor has run since the 1940s. Investors, economists and Federal Reserve officials watch it closely because it shows how households feel about their finances before that shows up in spending data. The October result means sentiment has stayed near historic lows through the autumn, with the November 3 midterm elections less than two weeks away.

## Consumer sentiment October 2026: the final numbers

The headline index barely moved, but its two parts went in opposite directions. Consumers' view of current conditions got worse, while their expectations for the year ahead improved slightly. The table compares the final October figures with the preliminary estimate, September, and October 2025.

| Measure                                     | Oct 2026 (final) | Oct 2026 (preliminary) | Sep 2026 | Oct 2025 | Change vs Sep | Change vs year ago |
| ------------------------------------------- | ---------------- | ---------------------- | -------- | -------- | ------------- | ------------------ |
| Index of Consumer Sentiment                 | 48.0             | 46.3                   | 48.1     | 53.6     | \-0.2%        | \-10.4%            |
| Current Economic Conditions                 | 46.7             | 44.7                   | 50.9     | 58.6     | \-8.3%        | \-20.3%            |
| Index of Consumer Expectations              | 48.8             | 47.3                   | 46.3     | 50.3     | +5.4%         | \-3.0%             |
| Year-ahead inflation expectations           | 4.7%             | 4.7%                   | 4.6%     | n/a      | +0.1 pt       | n/a                |
| Long-run (5-10 year) inflation expectations | 3.5%             | 3.5%                   | 3.4%     | n/a      | +0.1 pt       | n/a                |

*Data as of October 23, 2026, 14:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. ET). Sources: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (final and September figures, changes); investingLive (preliminary October figures, published October 9).*

The final reading differs from the preliminary estimate because it adds interviews completed later in the month. When the preliminary 46.3 was published on October 9, investingLive reported that economists had expected about 47.8\. The final 48.0 cancelled most of that drop, but it still left sentiment about where it was in September.

## How close is sentiment to the record low?

The all-time low is 44.8, set in May 2026\. Al Jazeera reported that high prices and fuel supply disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran pushed sentiment down that month. October's 48.0 is 3.2 points above that low. Al Jazeera and The Epoch Times both call it the second-lowest reading in the survey's history.

The University of Michigan also compares the latest reading with earlier points this year. It says sentiment is about 10% lower than a year ago and roughly 15% lower than in February, just before the Iran conflict began.

## What drove the October reading

### Purchasing power and prices

"Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy," Hsu said, according to Al Jazeera and The Epoch Times. Al Jazeera linked the pressure to higher grocery and gasoline prices tied to continuing tensions between the US and Iran. It cited AAA's national average for regular gasoline at $4.29 a gallon, down from $4.47 a month earlier. That is still high enough to strain household budgets, as Bullquill reported in its look at [how US gas prices are hitting family finances](https://bullquill.com/us-gas-prices-strain-household-budgets/).

### Big-ticket purchases

According to the University of Michigan's commentary, the entire drop in the current conditions index came from buying conditions for durable goods. That measure fell 18%, and the survey attributed the drop to higher interest rates and worries about affordability. Expectations for business conditions over the next year improved by about 14%, but they remain 16% below last October.

### Politics before the midterms

The headline barely moved, but the survey found shifts by political group. Hsu wrote that gains among Republicans and Democrats were offset by declines among independents. Al Jazeera reported that sentiment among independents fell to 42.4, just above their own low of 40.6 in May. It also reported that the share of independents citing inflation as a financial strain has risen 27% since January. For Republicans the rise was 52%, and for Democrats 15%.

### Stock ownership

Al Jazeera reported that households with little or no money in the stock market were more likely to name high prices as a drag on their finances. This was true even though stocks have been rising on enthusiasm about artificial intelligence. The gap helps explain why record equity prices and near-record consumer gloom can exist together.

## Inflation expectations: highest since May

Inflation expectations matter most for policymakers. Year-ahead expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6%. According to The Epoch Times, they were 3.4% in February. Long-run expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. Al Jazeera put them at 3.2% in March. The University of Michigan said both measures increased for a second straight month and reached their highest levels since May. It added that the rise was seen across the political spectrum.

The latest official data show why households are worried. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, the figure cited by Al Jazeera and covered in Bullquill's [explainer on the Fed's October rate-hike debate](https://bullquill.com/fed-october-meeting-rate-hike-debate-explained/). Energy is the main channel. Bullquill's guide to [how oil price shocks feed into inflation and interest rates](https://bullquill.com/how-oil-price-shocks-hit-inflation-and-rates/) explains how fuel costs spread into transport, food and services.

## Gloomy surveys, resilient spending

Low sentiment has not yet led to a collapse in spending. The Epoch Times reported that the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model expects consumer spending to account for more than 70% of third-quarter growth. It also reported that September retail sales beat forecasts, though gasoline-station purchases drove much of the gain. Excluding gasoline and auto dealers, sales rose just 0.2%. According to The Epoch Times, Deutsche Bank economists said the gap between survey readings and actual spending is widening.

Hsu offered one explanation, as reported by Al Jazeera. Steady spending may partly reflect precautionary buying, with households buying ahead of expected price increases. She added that this behaviour could make it harder for inflation to come down.

## What it means

**For the Federal Reserve:** The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point in September to 3.75%-4.00%. The Epoch Times reported that this was the first increase since July 2023\. Policymakers meet on October 27-28\. Al Jazeera cited CME FedWatch data showing an 89.5% probability of no change. The Epoch Times reported that futures markets price a further quarter-point increase in December. Two months of rising inflation expectations strengthen the case for officials who worry that higher prices are becoming entrenched. Weak sentiment and slower hiring argue for caution.

**For households and businesses:** An 18% drop in durable-goods buying conditions points to weaker demand for cars, appliances and other financed purchases. These are the areas most affected by higher interest rates. Retailers heading into the holiday season face shoppers who are still spending but are very sensitive to prices.

**For politics:** The midterms take place on November 3\. The survey shows that cost-of-living concerns now cross party lines and are growing fastest among independents. How that affects votes is not something the survey measures.

**What comes next:** The University of Michigan will publish the preliminary November reading on Friday, November 6, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. ET. Third-quarter GDP and September personal spending data follow on October 29, a day after the Fed's decision. Readers comparing inflation trends in other economies can also see Bullquill's report on [UK inflation rising to 3.5% in September](https://bullquill.com/uk-inflation-rises-to-3-5-percent-september/).

## Frequently asked questions

### What was US consumer sentiment in October 2026?

The University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment for October 2026 was 48.0, compared with 48.1 in September and a preliminary October estimate of 46.3\. It was 10.4% lower than in October 2025.

### What is the record low for the Michigan consumer sentiment index?

The all-time low is 44.8, recorded in May 2026\. October 2026's reading of 48.0 has been reported as the second-lowest in the survey's history.

### What are consumers' inflation expectations in October 2026?

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6% in September, and long-run expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. Both are the highest since May 2026, according to the University of Michigan.

### When is the next University of Michigan consumer sentiment release?

The preliminary November 2026 reading is scheduled for Friday, November 6, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

## Sources

- [University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers: Final results for October 2026](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/?ref=bullquill.com)
- [University of Michigan News: As concerns over purchasing power dominate, consumer sentiment moves sideways](https://news.umich.edu/as-concerns-over-purchasing-power-dominate-consumer-sentiment-moves-sideways/?ref=bullquill.com)
- [Al Jazeera: US consumer sentiment hits a near-record low before midterm elections (Oct. 23, 2026)](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/23/us-consumer-sentiment-hits-a-near-record-low-before-midterm-elections?ref=bullquill.com)
- [The Epoch Times: Cost of living pressures continue to weigh on US consumer sentiment (Oct. 23, 2026)](https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/cost-of-living-pressures-continue-to-weigh-on-us-consumer-sentiment-umich-6108084?ref=bullquill.com)
- [investingLive: US October UMich preliminary consumer sentiment 46.3 vs 47.8 expected (Oct. 9, 2026)](https://investinglive.com/news/us-october-umich-prelim-consumer-sentiment-vs-47-8-expected/?ref=bullquill.com)
- [Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)
- [BEA: Release schedule](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule?ref=bullquill.com)

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.