> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://bullquill.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Indonesia cuts gas exports to Singapore by 31 BBTUD: what's at stake - URL: https://bullquill.com/indonesia-singapore-gas-export-cut-dispute/ - Published: 2026-10-29T01:14:51.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-29T01:14:51.000Z - Description: Jakarta says the pipeline gas cut is within contract limits; Singapore says it is under 2% of power-sector demand and expects commitments to be honoured. The real test is the end-2028 contract expiry. - Author: Rowan Ashby - Tags: Politics, Explainer, Trending, Indonesia, Singapore, Bahlil Lahadalia, Lawrence Wong, Natural Gas, #lang-en, #tr-indonesia-singapore-gas-export-cut-dispute ## Key takeaways - Indonesia's upstream regulator SKK Migas cut pipeline gas exports to Singapore by 31 BBTUD from 24 October: 15 BBTUD from Natuna and 16 BBTUD from Sumatra. - Singapore's Energy Market Authority puts the actual reduction at 17 BBTUD over 18 days, which it says is under 2% of daily power-sector gas demand. - Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia says the cut stays inside contract limits. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong says Singapore expects all parties to honour their commitments. - The row follows Singapore's legal notices to 10 Indonesian companies over the haze, plus Bahlil's warning that he may halt exports to countries that "disrespect" Indonesia. - Sembcorp Industries, whose gas arm receives the Natuna pipeline gas, fell about 5% in early trade on 26 October. The current contracts expire at the end of 2028. Jakarta started sending less pipeline gas to Singapore on Saturday, 24 October. SKK Migas chief Djoko Siswanto announced a 31 BBTUD (billion British thermal units per day) reduction a day earlier, and Singapore's government confirmed the drop on 25 October. This Indonesia gas export cut is small in volume, but it has turned into a diplomatic row between the two ASEAN neighbours. It comes alongside an open dispute over the haze and a warning from Jakarta that it may not renew the contracts. Jakarta last raised the idea of halting gas exports to Singapore in 2011, according to Eco-Business, and later clarified that only the supply source would change. Below is what Indonesia actually cut, what the two governments say about the contracts, how the dispute is tied to the haze, and which listed companies and markets are exposed. ## What did Indonesia cut, and when? According to a Straits Times report republished by The Star, Djoko told reporters in Jakarta on 23 October: "Starting tomorrow, we will reduce gas exports to Singapore by 15 BBTUD from Natuna and 16 BBTUD from Sumatra." The Sumatra volume comes from the Jambi Merang gas field. SKK Migas said only Singapore is affected, because these export pipelines connect directly to it. The Jakarta Globe reported that Indonesia was supplying about 409.55 BBTUD to Singapore before the cut. On that basis, 31 BBTUD is roughly 7.6%, and Bahlil described the cut as about 8% of total exports. The same report used US Energy Information Administration figures to estimate that Indonesia exported about 4.11 billion cubic metres of pipeline gas to Singapore in 2024. Singapore's figure is smaller. In remarks published by the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 25 October, Minister Tan See Leng said the Energy Market Authority (EMA) had confirmed a reduction. Based on importer data, EMA put it at 17 BBTUD over 18 days, which is less than 2% of daily power-sector gas demand. Neither government has explained the gap between 31 BBTUD and 17 BBTUD. Possible reasons include different reference periods, or nominated volumes compared with volumes actually delivered, but this has not been confirmed. ### Key numbers in the Indonesia-Singapore gas dispute | Item | Figure | Source | | --------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------- | | Cut announced by SKK Migas (from 24 Oct) | 31 BBTUD (Natuna 15, Sumatra 16) | SKK Migas, via The Straits Times/ANN in The Star | | Indonesian supply before the cut | about 409.55 BBTUD | Jakarta Globe | | Reduction as measured by Singapore's EMA | 17 BBTUD over 18 days | METI (Singapore) | | Share of Singapore's daily power-sector gas demand | under 2% | METI (Singapore) | | Singapore's total daily gas demand | above 1,000 BBTUD | The Straits Times/ANN in The Star; Fortune | | Share of Singapore's electricity generated from gas | about 95% | The Straits Times/ANN in The Star; Eco-Business | | Pipeline share of Singapore's gas supply (Malaysia + Indonesia, 2025) | 40% | The Straits Times/ANN in The Star | | Indonesian pipeline gas exports to Singapore, 2024 | about 4.11 billion cubic metres | US EIA data, via The Star | | Expiry of current Indonesia-Singapore gas contracts | end of 2028 | Singapore government, via Eco-Business and AsiaOne | ## What do the contracts say? The gas sale agreements are commercial contracts and they are not public. The buyers in Singapore are Gas Supply Pte Ltd, which The Star says is wholly owned by Temasek and takes the Sumatra gas, and Sembcorp Gas, whose receiving facility is fed by the Natuna pipeline. The Star reported that Jakarta agreed in 2022 to keep supplying Singapore until 2028, at lower volumes than under the earlier contracts. Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong has said the existing contracts expire at the end of 2028. Bahlil's case is that the cut is legal. At a press briefing on 26 October, the Jakarta Globe reported, he said the 31 BBTUD cut "still falls under the contract's cap, which is between 91 and 92," and that a reduction of 10% would be a breach. The unit of that range is unclear. The Jakarta Globe inserted "BBTUD", but Bahlil's own 8%-versus-10% comparison suggests a percentage threshold. "We respect the rules and contracts. Don't lecture Indonesia about honoring contracts," he added. Singapore has not accused Jakarta of a breach. "We expect the contracts to be honoured," Tan said, according to the METI transcript. He said Gas Supply would check with its suppliers whether there had been a breach and, if so, would pursue the remedies in the contract. Because the contract terms are confidential, outsiders cannot check either side's reading. ## How did Lawrence Wong and Bahlil Lahadalia respond? The exchange escalated quickly over five days: - **21 October:** After a cabinet plenary marking two years of President Prabowo Subianto's government, Bahlil said he was considering not renewing gas export contracts with neighbouring countries, because Indonesia must meet domestic needs first, AsiaOne reported. - **22 October:** At the opening of new facilities at the Jangkrik and Maha gas fields off East Kalimantan, he said: "I will not hesitate to consider halting exports to countries that disrespect Indonesia," Eco-Business reported. He did not name any country. - **23 October:** SKK Migas announced the 31 BBTUD cut, effective the next day. - **25 October:** Wong said gas supplies are covered by commercial contracts and that Singapore expects all parties to honour their commitments, Fortune reported. Tan told Singaporeans to "keep calm and carry on". - **26 October:** Bahlil said the cut was within the contract cap and told Singapore not to lecture Indonesia. Singapore has kept its tone low. Tan said there was "sufficient replacement gas from other sources, including LNG," and noted that EMA had handled earlier reductions caused by maintenance without incident. The Star reported those reductions ranged from 20 to 100 BBTUD. ## Why the haze legal notices matter Neither government has officially linked the gas cut to the haze, but the timing is hard to miss. On 16 October, Singapore issued notices under its Transboundary Haze Pollution Act to seven Indonesian companies, according to a Bernama report in Free Malaysia Today. Minister Grace Fu said some of the haze in Singapore came from fires on those companies' land. Eco-Business reported that the total later rose to 10, and that Senior Minister K Shanmugam said the Singapore Exchange had asked seven listed agricultural companies about possible links to the fires. In Jakarta, Prabowo ordered police, prosecutors and the forestry ministry to investigate the companies behind the fires. Eco-Business quoted him as saying that "for certain countries that like to insult the Indonesian nation, in time we will reveal the companies." Asked whether the timing of the cut was a response to Singapore's comments on the haze, Tan said he was not in a position to comment. Relations are also under strain in the capital markets. Fortune reported that MSCI has threatened to downgrade Indonesia to "standalone" status. It also reported that former trade minister Muhammad Lutfi accused Temasek and GIC of pressuring MSCI, and that a Temasek spokesperson denied this. Bullquill covered the stock-market side in [IHSG falls 1.2% to 5,374 as midmorning selling erases gain](https://bullquill.com/ihsg-falls-1-percent-monday-morning-selloff/). ## What is at stake for ASEAN investors ### Singapore: LNG now matters more than the pipelines Singapore depends heavily on gas, which generates about 95% of its electricity. However, the pipeline share is shrinking. According to The Star, 40% of supply came by pipeline from Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025, and Eco-Business, citing the government, reported that LNG made up more than half of gas imports in 2024\. A second LNG terminal is under construction. METI also said the government keeps a standby LNG facility and requires generation companies to hold diesel reserves in case of a larger disruption. On electricity prices, Tan said there would be little change in the short term. He said global gas prices matter more, because Singapore's gas contracts are usually linked to global price indexes. ### Listed companies with direct exposure Sembcorp Industries is the clearest listed name. Sembcorp Gas receives the Natuna pipeline gas. According to a Business Times report carried by Red Hot Singapore, Sembcorp shares were at S$5.71 at 9:20 am Singapore time (01:20 UTC) on 26 October. That was down S$0.30, or 5%, from the 23 October close of S$6.01, and the lowest level since August. Gas Supply is not listed. The Star reported that a May 2025 gas swap involving MedcoEnergi, Sembcorp Gas and Gas Supply had already allowed more Sumatra gas to be redirected to domestic buyers in Indonesia. ### Indonesia: keeping gas at home For Indonesia, the cut is part of a wider policy. Bahlil said on 23 October that about 30% of Indonesia's gas output is exported and 70% is used at home, according to The Star, and Eco-Business quoted him as saying natural resources "will be used for domestic needs first." Upstream producers and buyers abroad now have reason to doubt whether contracts will be extended after 2028\. Eco-Business noted that only five months earlier, Bahlil had assured producers that 2026 export quotas would not be cut. ## What it means On today's numbers, the gas cut is manageable for Singapore. Both sides agree it is a single-digit percentage of Indonesia's pipeline flows, and Singapore says it is under 2% of its power-sector demand. The bigger risk is the end-2028 contract expiry. If Jakarta does not renew, Singapore would have to replace a large share of its pipeline supply with LNG, which is priced on global markets. Indonesia would in turn give up export revenue in exchange for supplying its own industry. For investors, the events to watch are whether Gas Supply or Sembcorp Gas formally claims a breach, whether SKK Migas extends or deepens the cut, how the haze cases move forward, and any statement from the Indonesian or Singapore government on renewal talks. Until the contract terms are made public, neither government's account of the cut can be independently checked. For more coverage, see Bullquill's [Indonesia](https://bullquill.com/tag/indonesia/), [Singapore](https://bullquill.com/tag/singapore/) and [natural gas](https://bullquill.com/tag/natural-gas/) pages, and our guide to [Asian stock market hours and holidays](https://bullquill.com/asian-stock-market-hours-holidays-2026-2027/) for SGX and IDX trading times. ## Frequently asked questions ### How much gas did Indonesia cut to Singapore? SKK Migas announced a cut of 31 BBTUD from 24 October 2026: 15 BBTUD from Natuna and 16 BBTUD from Sumatra. Singapore's Energy Market Authority measured the reduction at 17 BBTUD over 18 days, which it says is under 2% of daily power-sector gas demand. ### Did Indonesia breach its gas contract with Singapore? Neither side has said so. Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia says the cut is within the contract cap. Singapore says it expects contracts to be honoured, and importer Gas Supply is checking with its suppliers whether any breach occurred. The contract terms are not public. ### When do Indonesia's gas export contracts with Singapore expire? The current contracts expire at the end of 2028, according to the Singapore government. Bahlil has said Indonesia is considering not renewing gas exports to neighbouring countries. ### Will Singapore electricity prices rise because of the Indonesian gas cut? Minister Tan See Leng said short-term price effects should be limited, because global gas prices matter more and replacement supply, including LNG, is available. ## Related on Bullquill - [IHSG drops 2.3% to 5,247 as afternoon selling hits banks](https://bullquill.com/ihsg-drops-2-percent-tuesday-afternoon-selloff/) - [Rupiah record low in sight with USD/IDR at 18,140 on MSCI fears](https://bullquill.com/rupiah-near-record-low-msci-outflows/) - [IHSG weekly: up 4.9% as foreigners net sell Rp6.67 trillion](https://bullquill.com/ihsg-weekly-rebound-foreign-net-selling/) - [Bank Indonesia BI-Rate held at 5.75%; deposit rate up to 5.00%](https://bullquill.com/bank-indonesia-holds-bi-rate-october-surprise/) - [Singapore's New AI Risk Guidelines for Banks and Insurers: What MAS Expects](https://bullquill.com/mas-ai-risk-management-guidelines-explained/) This article is for information only and is not investment advice.