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# Nickel hits 5-week high as Indonesia moves on ore trader firms
- URL: https://bullquill.com/indonesia-nickel-crackdown-lme-price-rebound/
- Published: 2026-11-08T05:16:30.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-08T05:16:30.000Z
- Description: Jakarta's enforcement action against companies tied to a former Glencore trader, plus official signals of a smaller 2027 mining quota, lifted nickel off its late-October lows. What is confirmed, what is not, and how Indonesian nickel stocks traded.
- Author: Rowan Ashby
- Tags: Markets, Trending, Nickel, Indonesia, London Metal Exchange, Nickel Industries, #lang-en, #tr-indonesia-nickel-crackdown-lme-price-rebound

## Key takeaways

- London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel rose 3.8% to $16,375 a ton as of 17:00 UTC on Thursday, Nov 5, 2026, after touching $16,415, its highest since Sep 25, 2026, Kitco reported, carrying a Reuters story.
- The trigger was an announcement by Indonesia's forest-area enforcement task force that it would act against companies owned by or linked to nickel ore trader Arif Kurniawan over alleged irregularities in mining, permits and forest land use.
- Officials at Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) signalled that the 2027 nickel ore quota will be lower than the revised 2026 level of about 290 million to 300 million wet tonnes; no 2027 figure has been announced.
- On the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Vale Indonesia (INCO) rose 6.84% on Nov 5, 2026 and another 3.66% on Nov 6, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance daily data; Antam, Merdeka Battery Materials and Trimegah Bangun Persada gained on Nov 5 but slipped on Nov 6.
- Nickel Industries said in its Q3 2026 report that an unusually severe drought in Central Sulawesi constrained the ramp-up of its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt (ENC) plant.

The nickel price climbed to a five-week high in London on Thursday, Nov 5, 2026, after Indonesia moved against firms tied to a major ore trader and signalled a smaller 2027 mining quota, according to reports by Kitco and The Deep Dive.

Indonesia accounts for about 60% of global nickel supply, The Edge Malaysia reported. The rally followed a slide that had left nickel near a 10-month low in late October 2026.

## Nickel price in November 2026: what moved on the LME

According to Reuters reporting carried by Business Recorder, three-month nickel on the LME was up 2.2% at $16,125 a ton at 10:10 UTC on Nov 5, 2026, having earlier risen as much as 3% to $16,255\. By 17:00 UTC the gain had widened to 3.8% at $16,375, with a session high of $16,415, the strongest level since Sep 25, 2026, Kitco reported in its version of the Reuters story. Both intraday readings sit inside that day's reported range.

In China, the most-traded nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 5.3% at 122,550 yuan a ton on Nov 5, 2026, its biggest daily gain since January 2026, Business Recorder reported, citing Reuters.

The rebound started from a low base. Trading Economics wrote on Oct 23, 2026 that nickel had fallen to about $15,300 a ton, near its lowest level in more than ten months. On Monday, Nov 2, 2026, Indonesian minister Bahlil Lahadalia said nickel had slipped to about $15,800 a ton, roughly 5% below the state reference price, The Deep Dive reported.

| Market / instrument               | Level          | Change                     | Time (UTC) and date | Source                      |
| --------------------------------- | -------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------- | --------------------------- |
| LME three-month nickel (intraday) | $16,125/t      | +2.2%                      | 10:10, Nov 5, 2026  | Business Recorder (Reuters) |
| LME three-month nickel            | $16,375/t      | +3.8%                      | 17:00, Nov 5, 2026  | Kitco (Reuters)             |
| LME nickel session high           | $16,415/t      | Highest since Sep 25, 2026 | Nov 5, 2026         | Kitco (Reuters)             |
| SHFE most-traded nickel (close)   | 122,550 yuan/t | +5.3%                      | Nov 5, 2026         | Business Recorder (Reuters) |
| LME tin                           | $46,100/t      | \-1.9%                     | 17:00, Nov 5, 2026  | Kitco (Reuters)             |

Bullquill could not confirm an exchange-published LME closing price for Friday, Nov 6, 2026 as of publication, so this article does not report a Friday nickel close. LME tin fell to its lowest since Apr 2, 2026 in the same Nov 5 session, according to Kitco.

## The forestry task force action against Arif Kurniawan

Indonesia's Forest Area Order and Enforcement Task Force, known locally as Satgas PKH, said on Nov 5, 2026 that it would take enforcement action against companies controlled by or affiliated with Arif Kurniawan, a former Glencore nickel trader. Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reported that the task force's preliminary review flagged possible violations involving mining operations, permits and forest land use, and that specific enforcement measures had not been disclosed.

Task force spokesperson Barita Simanjuntak confirmed at a press conference that "AK", the initials used in the statement, referred to Kurniawan, Mining.com.au reported, citing the state news agency ANTARA. The same report said the task force had begun taking control of the affected forest land, and that possible outcomes include administrative fines, asset recovery and referral for prosecution if evidence supports it. No criminal liability findings had been announced, and the task force had not named the companies, concessions or the size of the area involved.

The Edge Malaysia reported that Kurniawan, who left Glencore more than a decade ago, traded about a third of Indonesia's nickel ore supply in 2024, citing a survey of industry figures, and holds stakes in at least 20 mining concessions together with a key business partner. Kurniawan, reached through an associate, did not immediately respond to requests for comment, The Edge Malaysia said. Mining.com.au noted that authorities have not alleged any link between Glencore and the action. The allegations have not been tested in court.

## 2027 ore quota: signals, not a number

The second support for prices came from Jakarta's quota system, known as RKAB. SMM reported on Nov 4, 2026 that Cecep Mochammad Yasin, director of mineral business development at ESDM's Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, said the 2027 nickel ore quota would take into account the optimal operating capacity of domestic smelters, not only their raw-material needs. He also cited a global nickel surplus of about 800,000 tons and elevated inventories on the LME and the Shanghai exchange.

The Deep Dive reported that Tri Winarno, director general of minerals and coal, said the 2027 quota would fall below the revised 2026 level of 290 million to 300 million tons, which had itself been raised from 260 million to 270 million tons at the start of 2026\. Miners have requested more than 500 million tons for 2027, the same report said. Indonesia's National Economic Council has backed using the quota system to cut production, according to The Deep Dive.

The size of the 2027 quota remains unannounced, and estimates of the market surplus differ widely. The International Nickel Study Group forecasts a surplus of 19,000 tons in 2026 and 70,000 tons in 2027, far below the 800,000-ton figure cited by Indonesian officials, The Deep Dive reported. Macquarie analysts, quoted by Kitco, said they expect "a fall of 6% or so in total exports of nickel and products" from Indonesia for 2026 as a whole.

Shanghai Metals Market cautioned that high inventories and weak spot buying could limit how long the rebound lasts, according to The Deep Dive, which put LME nickel stocks at 275,592 tons, with 14,508 tons earmarked for withdrawal, based on the exchange's latest data at the time of its Nov 6, 2026 report.

## Drought at Nickel Industries' ENC plant

Supply in Central Sulawesi has also been constrained by weather. In its Q3 2026 operating report, released on Oct 22, 2026, ASX-listed Nickel Industries said an unusually severe drought and water shortages in Central Sulawesi had held back the ramp-up of its 46%-owned Excelsior Nickel Cobalt (ENC) high-pressure acid leach project, SMM reported. ENC produced 494 tons of contained cobalt and 4,840 tons of contained nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate during the quarter, after earlier reaching 50% of nameplate capacity.

The company expects conditions to improve when the rainy season arrives in December 2026, and expects the industrial business licence that would allow commercial ENC sales in Q4 2026, according to the same SMM report. Separately, Nickel Industries' Justin Werner expects producers at the Morowali industrial park to coordinate any output reductions, The Deep Dive reported.

## How Indonesian nickel stocks traded

Indonesia-listed nickel producers rose on Nov 5, 2026, the day of the task force announcement, after declines earlier in the week, Yahoo Finance daily data show. Gains were uneven on Friday, Nov 6, 2026\. Bullquill did not find exchange filings or company statements attributing these share moves to the task force action or the quota signals.

| Stock (IDX ticker)               | Close Nov 4, 2026 (IDR) | Close Nov 5, 2026 (IDR) | Change Nov 5 | Close Nov 6, 2026 (IDR) | Change Nov 6 |
| -------------------------------- | ----------------------- | ----------------------- | ------------ | ----------------------- | ------------ |
| Vale Indonesia (INCO)            | 3,070                   | 3,280                   | +6.84%       | 3,400                   | +3.66%       |
| Aneka Tambang (ANTM)             | 2,600                   | 2,720                   | +4.62%       | 2,690                   | \-1.10%      |
| Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA) | 300                     | 310                     | +3.33%       | 302                     | \-2.58%      |
| Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL)   | 725                     | 740                     | +2.07%       | 725                     | \-2.03%      |

Source: Yahoo Finance daily price data for INCO.JK, ANTM.JK, MBMA.JK and NCKL.JK, retrieved Nov 8, 2026; percentages calculated by Bullquill from the closes shown.

Despite the two-day gain, Vale Indonesia's Nov 6, 2026 close of 3,400 rupiah was still slightly below its Oct 30, 2026 close of 3,420 rupiah in the same data set. For broader context on how the Jakarta market has traded this month, see our [Indonesia stocks daily brief for Nov 2, 2026](https://bullquill.com/indonesia-stocks-daily-brief-2026-11-02/) and the [ASEAN Close tracker](https://bullquill.com/asean-close/).

## What it means

For ASEAN investors, the Nov 5, 2026 session showed that Indonesian policy is again the main swing factor for nickel. Two separate signals arrived in the same week: enforcement against firms linked to a large ore trader, which the Reuters report carried by Kitco linked to concerns about ore shortages, and officials' statements that 2027 mining quotas will be lower. Neither has yet produced a hard number: the task force has not named the companies or concessions, and ESDM has not published the 2027 RKAB quota.

The counterweights are also on the record. Inventories on the LME remain large, the International Nickel Study Group sees only a small surplus, and SMM has flagged weak spot buying. Readers tracking the story can follow the next formal steps: any list of companies or concessions from Satgas PKH, the final 2027 RKAB quota from ESDM, and Nickel Industries' update on whether ENC receives its sales licence in Q4 2026\. More coverage is collected on our [Nickel](https://bullquill.com/tag/nickel/) and [Indonesia](https://bullquill.com/tag/indonesia/) topic pages.

## Frequently asked questions

### Why did the nickel price rise on November 5, 2026?

LME three-month nickel rose 3.8% to $16,375 a ton as of 17:00 UTC on Nov 5, 2026, according to a Reuters report carried by Kitco, after Indonesia's forest-area enforcement task force said it would act against companies linked to nickel ore trader Arif Kurniawan. Indonesian officials had also signalled a lower 2027 ore quota.

### What is Indonesia's nickel ore quota for 2027?

No 2027 figure had been announced as of Nov 8, 2026\. Officials at Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said the 2027 quota would be below the revised 2026 level of about 290 million to 300 million wet tons, according to The Deep Dive and Shanghai Metals Market.

### Who is Arif Kurniawan?

Arif Kurniawan is a former Glencore nickel trader. The Edge Malaysia reported that he traded about a third of Indonesia's nickel ore supply in 2024, citing a survey of industry figures. Indonesia's task force has alleged irregularities at companies linked to him; no criminal findings had been announced as of Nov 8, 2026.

### How is the drought affecting Nickel Industries?

In its Q3 2026 report released Oct 22, 2026, Nickel Industries said an unusually severe drought in Central Sulawesi had constrained the ramp-up of its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt plant, and it expects conditions to improve with the rainy season in December 2026, Shanghai Metals Market reported.

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This article is for information only and is not investment advice.