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# US Dollar Index Gains 0.21% in Week to Oct 30, 2026 as Fed Holds
- URL: https://bullquill.com/forex-weekly-brief-2026-10-30/
- Published: 2026-10-30T21:38:48.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-30T21:38:48.000Z
- Description: The dollar edged higher through a week of central bank meetings, while Brazil's real slumped after Lula's runoff win. The euro hit its lowest since May 2025 and the rupiah stayed under pressure from MSCI concerns.
- Author: Rowan Ashby
- Tags: Markets, Daily Brief, Forex, US Dollar, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Brazilian Real, Indonesian Rupiah, #lang-en, #tr-forex-weekly-brief-2026-10-30

## Key takeaways

- The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.21% in the week to Friday, October 30, closing at 101.96 at 20:59 UTC against 101.75 a week earlier, after trading between 102.49 and 101.54.
- USD/BRL jumped 9.54% to 5.4389 after President Lula won Brazil's October 25 runoff, the biggest weekly move among the pairs we track.
- The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with two officials preferring a hike, while the Bank of Canada raised rates for the first time in three years.
- EUR/USD fell 0.34% to 1.1166 after the euro touched its lowest level since May 2025 on Thursday, while USD/JPY rose 0.45% to 157.52 even though the Bank of Japan signalled more hikes.
- In Southeast Asia, the rupiah weakened, with ECB-implied USD/IDR up 0.22% to 18,148.20 at 13:15 UTC on Oct 30, as OCBC pointed to MSCI reclassification risk and foreign equity selling.

## Week in review

The dollar edged higher on the index but swung through a heavy week of central bank meetings, and the biggest move came from Brazil. The dollar index peaked on Tuesday before the Fed meeting, then gave back most of those gains as US Treasury yields fell late in the week. For the wider picture, see [Asian and global markets today](https://bullquill.com/markets/) and our [forex weekly brief for October 23](https://bullquill.com/forex-weekly-brief-2026-10-23/).

__Major and emerging-market exchange rates, week of October 26–30, 2026 (New York close unless noted)__
| Instrument            | Prior week close (Fri) | Week close (Fri) | Weekly change | % change | Week high / low       | As of (UTC)      | Source                |
| --------------------- | ---------------------- | ---------------- | ------------- | -------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | --------------------- |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.75                 | 101.96           | +0.21         | +0.21%   | 102.49 / 101.54       | 2026-10-30 20:59 | ICE via Yahoo Finance |
| EUR/USD               | 1.1204                 | 1.1166           | −0.0038       | −0.34%   | 1.1227 / 1.1110       | 2026-10-30 21:00 | Yahoo Finance         |
| USD/JPY               | 156.81                 | 157.52           | +0.71         | +0.45%   | 158.24 / 156.66       | 2026-10-30 20:59 | Yahoo Finance         |
| GBP/USD               | 1.3375                 | 1.3389           | +0.0014       | +0.10%   | 1.3433 / 1.3273       | 2026-10-30 21:00 | Yahoo Finance         |
| USD/CNY               | 6.6697                 | 6.6449           | −0.0248       | −0.37%   | 6.6779 / 6.6415       | 2026-10-30 20:56 | Yahoo Finance         |
| AUD/USD               | 0.7038                 | 0.7035           | −0.0003       | −0.04%   | 0.7068 / 0.7012       | 2026-10-30 21:00 | Yahoo Finance         |
| USD/CAD               | 1.4002                 | 1.3973           | −0.0029       | −0.21%   | 1.4067 / 1.3938       | 2026-10-30 21:00 | Yahoo Finance         |
| USD/CHF               | 0.8241                 | 0.8249           | +0.0008       | +0.10%   | 0.8313 / 0.8193       | 2026-10-30 21:00 | Yahoo Finance         |
| USD/IDR (ECB-implied) | 18,107.80              | 18,148.20        | +40.40        | +0.22%   | 18,176.40 / 18,138.60 | 2026-10-30 13:15 | ECB reference rates   |
| USD/INR               | 94.9300                | 94.9400          | +0.0100       | +0.01%   | 95.3630 / 94.6192     | 2026-10-30 19:45 | Yahoo Finance         |
| USD/KRW               | 1,323.66               | 1,333.44         | +9.78         | +0.74%   | 1,344.14 / 1,320.09   | 2026-10-30 20:59 | Yahoo Finance         |
| USD/BRL               | 4.9652                 | 5.4389           | +0.4737       | +9.54%   | 5.4617 / 4.9607       | 2026-10-30 21:00 | Yahoo Finance         |
| USD/MXN               | 18.6480                | 18.7435          | +0.0955       | +0.51%   | 18.9240 / 18.5304     | 2026-10-30 21:00 | Yahoo Finance         |

Notes: Prior-week closes are Yahoo Finance quotes for Friday, October 23, around 21:00 UTC (DXY: 20:00 UTC hourly value; Yahoo's daily history shows 101.81 for that day). Highs and lows are Yahoo Finance daily ranges for October 26–30\. USD/IDR is a Bullquill calculation from ECB reference rates (EUR/IDR ÷ EUR/USD), and its high/low are daily reference values; the prior close is from October 23 at 12:15 UTC. ECB reference rates confirm the direction of the other pairs.

### Day by day

- **Monday, Oct. 26:** Lula won a fourth term with 51.8% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.2%, CNBC reported. The real dropped 10.5% against the dollar at one point, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC, and trading on Brazil's exchange was halted by an automatic circuit breaker. DXY closed at 101.96\. More in [how Brazilian assets plunged after Lula's re-election](https://bullquill.com/ewz-brazil-assets-plunge-lula-reelection/).
- **Tuesday, Oct. 27:** DXY closed at 102.32, its highest close of the week. The ECB's euro reference rate fell to $1.1150 from $1.1188 on Monday.
- **Wednesday, Oct. 28:** The Fed held rates in a 10–2 vote that Navy Federal's Heather Long called a "hawkish skip," Investing.com reported, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favouring a quarter-point hike. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5%, FXStreet reported. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised most economists by holding at 2.75%, and the New Zealand dollar sank as much as 1.74% to $0.5583, according to CNBC. DXY closed at 102.19.
- **Thursday, Oct. 29:** The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. The ECB left rates unchanged, and the euro hit its lowest level since May 2025, Reuters reported via Investing.com. DXY closed at 102.04.
- **Friday, Oct. 30:** The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25%. The yen strengthened to 157.115 per dollar during the session, according to Reuters via Investing.com, and USD/JPY was at 157.52 at 20:59 UTC. DXY closed at 101.96.

## What drove it

### Brazil's election result

The runoff outcome caught markets off guard. ING's Chris Turner said in a note that "the fiscal side has always been Brazil's Achilles heel," CNBC reported, and Citi analysts flagged concerns about fiscal policy, state-owned enterprises and reforms. Goldman Sachs analysts expect only "modest measures" to contain spending growth, according to the same report. The real recovered from Monday's low but still ended the week 9.54% weaker on USD/BRL.

### The Fed: a hold that leaned hawkish

Chair Kevin Warsh said "financial conditions had tightened somewhat" since September, Investing.com reported. Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management said the Fed "left plenty of clues" that it planned to raise rates in December. CNBC reported that the dollar lost ground while Warsh spoke, and an analyst quoted by CNBC linked the move to a steepening of the yield curve.

### Strong US growth, softer quarterly inflation

BEA data showed the PCE price index rose at a 2.1% annual rate in the third quarter, down from 5.0%, while core PCE slowed to 2.5% from 3.3%. FXStreet's Michael Stark said the dollar still lost some ground after the strong GDP figure.

### AI earnings and falling yields

Results from Alphabet, Amazon and Intel rekindled worries about AI spending and triggered a tech selloff on Friday, Reuters reported via Investing.com. The fall in Treasury yields weighed on the dollar more than any safe-haven demand helped it.

### Europe and Japan

The ECB said higher bond yields had tightened financial conditions, and traders reduced bets on a December hike, Reuters reported. President Christine Lagarde said she will step down in February; see [our report on her departure](https://bullquill.com/lagarde-to-step-down-ecb-february-2027/). The BoJ raised its inflation forecast and said policy had entered a "more hawkish phase", but FXStreet's Joseph Trevisani said the market was "a little disappointed in the BOJ," according to Reuters.

### Asia and the rupiah

OCBC's Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong said the rupiah remained under pressure from uncertainty over MSCI's proposed reclassification of Indonesia, continued foreign equity selling and elevated oil prices, FXStreet reported on October 29\. Background is in our report on [the rupiah near a record low](https://bullquill.com/rupiah-near-record-low-msci-outflows/). Elsewhere in Asia, USD/CNY fell 0.37% as the yuan firmed, while USD/KRW rose 0.74%.

## Political & policy watch

- **Brazil:** Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede and said he would seek to annul the result, CNBC reported, citing Reuters. Investors are watching Lula's fiscal plans.
- **United States:** CNBC said the Fed opted to delay any changes until after the November 3 midterm elections.
- **France:** Euro gains were capped by French fiscal and political risk, including a 5.4% deficit and street protests, Investing.com reported.
- **Indonesia:** OCBC said investors want to see "credible enforcement" before reassessing exposure linked to the MSCI review, FXStreet reported.

## What to watch next

- **November 3:** US midterm elections; results may take several days (FXStreet). Reserve Bank of Australia decision; major Australian banks expect a hike to 4.85% (investingLive).
- **November 5:** Bank of England decision at 12:00 GMT; MUFG expects a 25-basis-point hike (investingLive).
- **November 6:** US and Canadian jobs reports on the same day (FXStreet).
- **December 8–9:** Next Fed meeting, with new economic projections (Federal Reserve calendar).

## Risk checklist for readers

- **Read the quote direction.** A higher USD/BRL means a weaker real; a lower USD/JPY means a stronger yen.
- **Election gap risk.** Weekend votes, like Brazil's runoff, can cause large price gaps when markets reopen.
- **Central bank surprises.** The RBNZ hold shows how quickly a currency can move when a decision differs from expectations.
- **First estimates get revised.** GDP advance estimates are revised later, which can change market reactions.
- **Reference rates are not trading prices.** ECB rates are set once a day and can differ from New York closing quotes.
- **Leverage magnifies losses.** Margin trading in currencies can cause losses larger than the money put in.

## Frequently asked questions

### Why did the US Dollar Index rise in the week to October 30, 2026?

The DXY rose 0.21% to 101.96 as the Federal Reserve held rates on October 28 while signalling a possible December hike, and the euro fell to its lowest since May 2025 after the ECB held. Falling Treasury yields on Friday, October 30, trimmed the dollar's gains.

### What is the US Dollar Index (DXY)?

The DXY measures the dollar against six major currencies: the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. The euro has the largest weight, so moves in EUR/USD strongly influence the index.

### Why do elections move emerging-market currencies such as the Brazilian real?

Investors reprice a country's fiscal outlook, interest rates and reform prospects when an election result changes expectations. Brazil's real fell sharply after the October 25, 2026 runoff because analysts cited concerns about fiscal policy under the winning candidate.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.