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# ECB meeting October 2026: 70 of 73 economists expect 2.50% hold
- URL: https://bullquill.com/ecb-october-2026-meeting-rate-decision-preview/
- Published: 2026-10-24T08:16:32.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-24T08:26:02.000Z
- Description: Christine Lagarde's press conference follows at 14:45 CET. The deposit rate is 2.50% after hikes in June and September 2026, and euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September.
- Author: Rowan Ashby
- Tags: Economy, Explainer, European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, Eurozone, Interest Rates, #lang-en, #tr-ecb-october-2026-meeting-rate-decision-preview

## Key takeaways

- The European Central Bank announces its next rate decision on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 14:15 CET (13:15 UTC). Christine Lagarde's press conference follows at 14:45 CET.
- The deposit facility rate is 2.50%, after 25 basis point hikes that took effect in June and September 2026.
- A Reuters poll found 70 of 73 economists expect a hold in October. 64 of them expect a 25 basis point hike in December.
- Euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September, but October business surveys weakened and French bond stress has grown.
- This page will be updated with the decision and Lagarde's comments after the meeting.

## ECB meeting October 2026: date, time and what is expected

The ECB meeting October 2026 decision comes on Thursday, October 29, at 14:15 CET (13:15 UTC). A Reuters poll found 70 of 73 economists expect the deposit facility rate to stay at 2.50%, and 64 expect a December hike.

According to the ECB's meeting calendar, the two-day meeting is held in Frankfurt and a press conference follows on day two. The ECB publishes its decision at 14:15 CET, and its September press release confirmed the press conference start time of 14:45 CET. Europe moves back from summer time on October 25, so both times are one hour after UTC: 13:15 UTC for the decision and 13:45 UTC for the press conference. In New York, which is still on daylight time, that is 09:15 and 09:45 EDT.

Unlike September, this meeting has no new staff projections. The next ECB forecasts are due with the December 16–17 meeting.

## Current ECB interest rates

The ECB has three key rates. The deposit facility rate, which banks earn on overnight deposits with the central bank, is the one that steers money market rates. The table shows the ECB's official rate changes since early 2025.

| With effect from | Deposit facility | Main refinancing operations | Marginal lending facility | Change   |
| ---------------- | ---------------- | --------------------------- | ------------------------- | -------- |
| 16 Sep 2026      | 2.50%            | 2.65%                       | 2.90%                     | +0.25 pt |
| 17 Jun 2026      | 2.25%            | 2.40%                       | 2.65%                     | +0.25 pt |
| 11 Jun 2025      | 2.00%            | 2.15%                       | 2.40%                     | −0.25 pt |
| 23 Apr 2025      | 2.25%            | 2.40%                       | 2.65%                     | −0.25 pt |
| 12 Mar 2025      | 2.50%            | 2.65%                       | 2.90%                     | −0.25 pt |

Source: European Central Bank, key ECB interest rates. Data as of October 24, 2026 (UTC).

The table shows a full reversal. The ECB cut to 2.00% by mid-2025, held for a year, and then raised rates twice in 2026 as energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict pushed inflation back up. The deposit rate is now back at its March 2025 level.

## Will the ECB raise rates in October?

A hike on October 29 looks unlikely, based on the available polls and pricing. Three signals point the same way:

- **Economists:** In a Reuters poll taken October 5–8, all but three of 73 economists expected the deposit rate to stay at 2.50% this month. 64 of 73 expected a 25 basis point increase in December. A month earlier, more than 90% of respondents had expected rates to stay on hold, so the December call is new.
- **Markets:** On October 23, investors priced more than a 91% probability that the ECB holds rates next week, Reuters reported. Nomura said on October 22 that markets priced about 75 basis points of hikes by September 2027, which it called excessive.
- **Banks:** Nomura expects a unanimous hold in October, then hikes in December 2026 and March 2027 for a peak deposit rate of 3.00%, FXStreet reported. Reuters reported on October 2 that Standard Chartered had switched to forecasting a December hike to 2.75%.

These are forecasts and prices, not ECB guidance. The ECB said in September that it decides "meeting by meeting" and is "not pre-committing to a particular rate path." The outcome is not known until the press release at 14:15 CET.

## What the September decision and account said

On September 10, the Governing Council raised all three key rates by 25 basis points. Lagarde said in the press conference that the decision was unanimous. The ECB said the Middle East conflict was keeping inflation pressures high and that inflation would stay well above its 2% target for an extended period.

ECB staff projections from September put headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028\. Growth was projected at 0.9%, 1.4% and 1.5%. The ECB said inflation risks were tilted to the upside, mainly because of energy, while growth risks were tilted to the downside.

The account of that meeting, published on October 8, gives more detail on the debate:

- Chief Economist Philip Lane proposed the 25 basis point hike, arguing that the full effects of the energy shock had not yet played out.
- Members noted that markets were pricing about 84 basis points of hikes by the end of 2027, while surveys expected the deposit rate to stop at 2.50%. They said the gap needed further study.
- Negotiated wage growth eased to 2.4% in the second quarter. The ECB wage tracker points to a modest pick-up to 2.7% in the first half of 2027.
- Households' inflation expectations five years ahead rose to 2.5% in August, the highest since the survey began. Members said the level of such surveys should be read with caution.
- Some members said the adverse scenario was more likely than the baseline. Others disagreed.

## Latest euro area data before the meeting

Since September, the data have pulled in two directions: inflation has risen, while growth surveys have weakened.

| Indicator                             | Latest | Previous      | Released     | Source                                  |
| ------------------------------------- | ------ | ------------- | ------------ | --------------------------------------- |
| Euro area HICP inflation (September)  | 3.8%   | 3.2% (August) | Oct 16, 2026 | Eurostat                                |
| Energy inflation (September)          | 18.9%  | 14.3%         | Oct 16, 2026 | Eurostat                                |
| Services inflation (September)        | 3.2%   | 3.0%          | Oct 16, 2026 | Eurostat                                |
| Flash composite PMI (October)         | 51.9   | 53.1          | Oct 23, 2026 | S&P Global, via ActionForex and Reuters |
| France flash composite PMI (October)  | 48.4   | 51.1          | Oct 23, 2026 | S&P Global, via ActionForex             |
| Germany flash composite PMI (October) | 52.8   | 53.8          | Oct 23, 2026 | S&P Global, via ActionForex             |

Data as of October 24, 2026 (UTC). A PMI reading above 50 signals growth; below 50 signals contraction.

### Inflation: highest in three years

Eurostat confirmed on October 16 that annual inflation rose to 3.8% in September. Energy and services made the largest contributions. Trading Economics noted the reading was the highest since September 2023\. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 2.5% from 2.4%, according to Trading Economics.

### Growth: October surveys softened

The flash composite PMI fell to 51.9 in October, its lowest since June and below the 52.7 expected in a Reuters poll. Services and manufacturing both slowed. France's composite dropped into contraction at 48.4\. Manufacturers reported the fastest rise in input costs since May, partly from energy and transport, but overall selling-price inflation slowed. Capital Economics economist Harry Chambers told Reuters there was "still little evidence of second-round effects, which will be reassuring for the ECB."

### France and the bond market

French bonds are the other pressure point. The gap between French and German 10-year yields tested 175 basis points on October 22 and stood near 170 basis points early on October 23, according to TradeTheNews via FXStreet. Moody's was scheduled to review France's Aa3 rating after the European close on October 23\. Our earlier report explains [why France's 10-year yield reached 5%](https://bullquill.com/france-10-year-bond-yield-5-percent-what-changed/).

Newsquawk wrote in its October 23 preview that French fiscal and civil unrest arguably reduces room for more tightening, even though data outside France point toward another hike. It said ECB officials have been clear that France's problems cannot be solved through monetary policy. The ECB's Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), which can buy bonds of a country facing disorderly market moves, "remains available," the ECB said in September. It comes with conditions, including sound fiscal policy.

## What to watch at Lagarde's press conference

- **The statement's wording on December.** Analysts will look for any change from "meeting by meeting" language. Nomura expects Lagarde not to endorse the full path that markets price.
- **France and the TPI.** Newsquawk expects questions about French bonds, the TPI and whether events in France change the ECB's approach.
- **Energy and second-round effects.** Any comment on whether high energy costs are spreading into wages and services prices. Our explainer covers [how oil price shocks feed into inflation and rates](https://bullquill.com/how-oil-price-shocks-hit-inflation-and-rates/).
- **Leadership questions.** Newsquawk said speculation about Lagarde's departure is growing and may come up. The ECB has made no announcement on this.

## A busy central bank week

The ECB decision comes in the middle of a crowded week. The US Federal Reserve meets on October 27–28 (see our [Fed October meeting explainer](https://bullquill.com/fed-october-meeting-rate-hike-debate-explained/)). The UK Budget is due on October 28, and the Bank of Japan decides on October 30\. On October 30, France, Spain and Italy also publish flash inflation for October, along with euro area third-quarter GDP, according to Newsquawk's calendar. Our [Europe market brief for October 23](https://bullquill.com/europe-stocks-daily-brief-2026-10-23/) covers how stocks and bonds moved ahead of the meetings.

## What it means

For borrowers and savers in the euro area, a hold would leave the ECB's rates unchanged until at least December 17\. Bank lending and deposit rates follow the deposit facility rate with a delay, so September's hike is still working through the system.

For markets, the decision itself is mostly priced in. The bigger issue is the guidance. If Lagarde signals that a December hike is still open, it would match the Reuters poll majority. If she stresses weaker growth and French risks, investors may scale back the roughly 75 basis points of further hikes Nomura said were priced by late 2027\. Either way, the ECB has said it will be guided by data, and the October flash inflation estimate and December projections will carry more weight than the October statement.

What is not yet known: the outcome of Moody's review of France and the exact wording of the October statement. This page will be updated after the decision.

## Frequently asked questions

### When is the next ECB meeting?

The ECB Governing Council meets in Frankfurt on October 28–29, 2026\. The rate decision is published on Thursday, October 29, at 14:15 CET (13:15 UTC), and Christine Lagarde's press conference starts at 14:45 CET. The meeting after that is on December 16–17, 2026.

### Will the ECB raise interest rates in October 2026?

A hike is not expected. In a Reuters poll taken October 5–8, 70 of 73 economists expected the deposit rate to stay at 2.50%, and Reuters reported on October 23 that markets priced more than a 91% chance of a hold. The decision is only known when the ECB publishes it.

### What is the ECB deposit rate now?

The deposit facility rate is 2.50%, the main refinancing rate is 2.65% and the marginal lending rate is 2.90%, in effect since September 16, 2026, according to the ECB.

### Why did the ECB raise rates in 2026?

The ECB raised rates in June and September 2026 because energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict pushed inflation well above its 2% target. Euro area inflation reached 3.8% in September, according to Eurostat.

## Sources

- [European Central Bank: Governing Council meeting calendar](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html?ref=bullquill.com)
- [European Central Bank: Key ECB interest rates](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy%5Fand%5Fexchange%5Frates/key%5Fecb%5Finterest%5Frates/html/index.en.html?ref=bullquill.com)
- [European Central Bank: Monetary policy decisions, 10 September 2026](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html?ref=bullquill.com)
- [European Central Bank: Monetary policy statement and Q&A, 10 September 2026](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press%5Fconference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260910~6a45359cfc.en.html?ref=bullquill.com)
- [European Central Bank: Account of the monetary policy meeting of 9–10 September 2026](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2026/html/ecb.mg261008~a10153d090.en.html?ref=bullquill.com)
- [Eurostat: Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area (October 16, 2026)](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/product?code=2-16102026-ap&ref=bullquill.com)
- [Trading Economics: Euro area inflation rate confirmed at three-year high in September](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi/news/592744?ref=bullquill.com)
- [CNBC: ECB hikes rates (September 10, 2026)](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ecb-interest-rate-hike-lagarde-iran.html?ref=bullquill.com)
- [RTÉ/Reuters: ECB to hike rates again in December as inflation almost doubles 2% target, Reuters poll](https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/1008/1594593-ecb-interest-rates-poll/?ref=bullquill.com)
- [Reuters via Investing.com: STOXX 600 extends fall as Kering slumps, oil climbs (October 23, 2026)](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stoxx-600-extends-fall-as-kering-slumps-oil-climbs-4968205?ref=bullquill.com)
- [Reuters via Investing.com: Euro zone growth slows to four-month low, PMI shows](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-growth-slows-to-4month-low-amid-rising-costs-and-french-turmoil-pmi-shows-4968292?ref=bullquill.com)
- [ActionForex: Eurozone PMI composite slows to 51.9 as France slips back into contraction](https://www.actionforex.com/live-comments/658516-eurozone-pmi-composite-slows-to-51-9-as-france-slips-back-into-contraction/?ref=bullquill.com)
- [FXStreet: Nomura on the ECB's December hike and market pricing](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-december-hike-signalled-as-markets-overprice-path-nomura-202610221628?ref=bullquill.com)
- [Reuters via Euronext: Standard Chartered joins major banks in betting on December ECB rate hike](https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/standard-chartered-joins-major-banks-betting-december-ecb-rate-hike?ref=bullquill.com)
- [TradeTheNews via FXStreet: France's 10-year spread tests 175bps hours before Moody's](https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/frances-10-year-spread-tests-175bps-hours-before-moodys-202610230952?ref=bullquill.com)
- [Newsquawk: Week in focus, October 26–30, 2026](https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/week-in-focus-26-30th-october-2026-fomc-boc-rbnz-ecb-boj-policy-decisions-us-pce?ref=bullquill.com)

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.