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# Democrats win Congress: what it means for Trump's ASEAN tariffs
- URL: https://bullquill.com/democratic-congress-trump-tariffs-asean-exporters/
- Published: 2026-11-05T01:17:21.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-05T01:17:21.000Z
- Description: From January 2027 a Democratic House and Senate can hold hearings, force votes and press for carve-outs, but ending the Section 301 duties on ASEAN goods would need veto-proof majorities the party does not have.
- Author: Rowan Ashby
- Tags: Politics, Explainer, Trending, US Congress, Donald Trump, Tariffs, Vietnam, ASEAN, #lang-en, #tr-democratic-congress-trump-tariffs-asean-exporters

## Key takeaways

- NBC News projections on Nov 4 put Democrats at 54 Senate seats and 258 House seats, short of the 67 senators and up to 290 representatives needed to override a presidential veto.
- Most ASEAN goods entering the US have paid Section 301 "forced labour" duties since July 24, 2026: 12.5% for Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore, and 10% for Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia.
- Senator Chuck Schumer's End Trump's Tariff Tax Act (S. 5390) would end those duties and refund them with interest, but it would need President Donald Trump's signature or a two-thirds override.
- The tools Democrats can actually use once the new Congress sits in January 2027 are oversight hearings, subpoenas, spending leverage and pressure for product or country carve-outs.
- A separate Section 301 investigation into manufacturing "excess capacity" names six ASEAN economies and remains a source of possible new duties.

A Democratic-controlled US Congress cannot easily repeal President Donald Trump's tariffs on Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and other ASEAN exporters. The Nov 3 election gave Democrats both chambers, yet Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer's repeal bill would face a veto that party votes alone cannot override.

That is the near-unanimous reading of law firms and analysts who published in the 48 hours after the vote. Baker McKenzie's trade team wrote on Nov 4 that undoing tariffs by statute would likely require "overriding a presidential veto by two thirds of the Senate", which in turn needs Republican votes. This explainer sets out the rates ASEAN exporters pay today, what the new Congress can and cannot change, and the dates that matter. It follows Bullquill's earlier coverage of [the midterm results and the first moves in ASEAN currencies](https://bullquill.com/us-midterm-results-asean-markets/).

## Can a Democratic Congress overturn Trump's tariffs?

On paper, Congress holds the tariff power. Article I, Section 8 of the US Constitution gives Congress the power "to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises". Over decades, however, Congress delegated much of that power to the president through trade laws such as Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

Taking that power back requires a new law, and a new law requires either the president's signature or a two-thirds vote in both chambers after a veto, under Article I, Section 7\. Pierre Yared of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) said in a Nov 4 analysis that because the tariffs rest on authority Congress already delegated, a change in party control alone is unlikely to change tariff policy.

| Chamber            | Democratic seats (NBC News projection, Nov 4) | Votes to override a veto (all members voting) | Shortfall |
| ------------------ | --------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------- | --------- |
| Senate (100 seats) | 54, with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled      | 67                                            | 13        |
| House (435 seats)  | 258 projected                                 | 290                                           | 32        |

Seat figures: NBC News projections as reported by NBC Chicago, updated Nov 4, 2026\. Override thresholds are two-thirds of each full chamber; the actual number depends on how many members vote.

Even in the best case for Democrats, at least 13 Republican senators and about 32 Republican House members would need to vote against the president. CFR's Joshua Kurlantzick wrote that Asian leaders hope the new Congress can rein in tariffs but that this is unlikely given the veto.

## Current US tariff rates on ASEAN exporters

The legal basis of US tariffs on Southeast Asia has changed twice this year. On Feb 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled in *Learning Resources v. Trump* that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) "does not authorize tariffs", Baker McKenzie noted, striking down the 2025 "reciprocal" tariffs. Al Jazeera reported that those had included rates of 49% on Cambodia and 46% on Vietnam.

The administration replaced them with a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which is limited to 150 days. According to Alston & Bird and a Congressional Research Service legal sidebar, it expired at 12:01 a.m. ET on July 24, 2026\. On July 23 the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) [announced Section 301 duties on 60 economies](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ustr-takes-action-forced-labor-section-301-investigations?ref=bullquill.com) that, in its words, had failed to "impose and effectively enforce a prohibition" on imports made with forced labour. The duties took effect on July 24.

| Economy     | Section 301 forced-labour duty | Also named in Section 301 excess-capacity probe |
| ----------- | ------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------- |
| Vietnam     | 12.5%                          | Yes                                             |
| Thailand    | 12.5%                          | Yes                                             |
| Philippines | 12.5%                          | No                                              |
| Singapore   | 12.5%                          | Yes                                             |
| Malaysia    | 10%                            | Yes                                             |
| Indonesia   | 10%                            | Yes                                             |
| Cambodia    | 10%                            | Yes                                             |

Sources: USTR press releases of July 23, 2026 (10% list and "all other investigated economies" at 12.5%) and March 11, 2026 (excess-capacity probe); Alston & Bird summary of the final action, July 24, 2026 (12.5% list). Rates for Laos, Myanmar and Brunei were not confirmed in the sources reviewed.

Three details shape what exporters actually pay. First, the duty generally stacks on top of normal most-favoured-nation (MFN) duties, Tilleke & Gibbins wrote on Oct 2\. Second, goods already covered by Section 232 sector tariffs are excluded. Third, USTR carved out certain products from economies that have adopted or committed to forced-labour import bans, a group that includes Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia.

The 2.5-percentage-point gap matters. Vietnam faced a 46% rate in April 2025, later cut to 20% in a deal, and faced 12.5% as of early November, Fortune reported on Nov 3\. Thailand ended up in the 12.5% tier after accepting only part of the US terms. In July, Thai Commerce Vice Minister Kirida Bhaopichitr described accepting only some US terms as "sacrificing a pawn to save the king", Nation Thailand reported, noting that Thailand had relied on the US for nearly 20% of its exports.

## What the End Trump's Tariff Tax Act would do

The most direct Democratic proposal is [S. 5390, the End Trump's Tariff Tax Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119s5390is/xhtml/BILLS-119s5390is.html?ref=bullquill.com), introduced by Schumer on Sept 14, 2026, with 29 cosponsors and referred to the Senate Finance Committee. According to the bill text on GovInfo, it would:

- end all duties from the Section 301 forced-labour investigations, the action that set the 10% and 12.5% rates on ASEAN economies;
- repeal Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, the 150-day balance-of-payments tariff power;
- repeal Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which Baker McKenzie said the administration used for the first time this year;
- require US Customs and Border Protection to refund the duties automatically, with interest, within 30 days of enactment, with small businesses first in line.

The bill would not repeal Section 301 itself or Section 232\. Even if a Democratic Senate passes it in 2027, it would still need the president's signature, so its main near-term value is as a recorded vote that shows which Republicans are willing to break with the White House on trade.

## What Democrats can realistically do from January 2027

### Oversight hearings and subpoenas

Committee control brings the power to call hearings, demand documents and subpoena officials. Baker McKenzie expects hearings on tariffs and consumer prices, subpoenas on how IEEPA tariff refunds are being handled, and scrutiny of strategic investment memorandums of understanding. CFR's Rebecca Patterson said Democrats may question companies on whether tariff refunds reached their customers.

### The power of the purse

Democrats will control appropriations. Ted Osius, a former US ambassador to Vietnam, told Fortune that "I expect that Congress would use the power of the purse to curb the president's ability to wage war in the Middle East", but added that "it's actually harder to unwind tariffs once you put them in place." Spending riders aimed at tariff enforcement would still have to survive a presidential signature on the funding bill.

### Pressure for carve-outs

Stephen Olson, a visiting fellow at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, argued in comments reported by Al Jazeera that a strong electoral rebuke could embolden pro-free-trade Republicans and produce carve-outs and exceptions for the region, with deeper change waiting for the 2028 presidential election. Kurlantzick noted that some Asian leaders believe Republicans may now be more willing to defy Trump.

### Rewriting Section 301

A July 21 Congressional Research Service legal sidebar lists ways Congress could narrow Section 301: amend the statute, require a joint resolution of approval before new duties take effect, or vote to disapprove specific actions. It said using the Congressional Review Act for Section 301 actions is legally unsettled, and every option remains subject to a veto.

## What does not change

Several forces sit outside Congress's reach. Baker McKenzie called the courts the main legal check over the next six to 12 months. The Court of International Trade heard arguments on Sept 30 in a challenge to the forced-labour Section 301 duties, and the firm described Sections 301 and 232 as "the most legally durable tariff authorities."

Section 301 actions also have no fixed end date. CRS noted they "terminate automatically after four years" unless domestic industry asks for continuation, and Tilleke & Gibbins pointed out that, unlike Section 122, there is no 150-day limit.

The excess-capacity investigation USTR opened on March 11, 2026, covers 16 economies, including Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. Tilleke & Gibbins wrote on Oct 2 that it could lead to additional duties. Steven Okun of APAC Advisors summed up the regional view in remarks quoted by Al Jazeera: "Tariffs don't change. The war doesn't change." CFR's Kurlantzick also warned that a president with two years left could become more emboldened, not less.

## Timeline: when the new Congress takes over

- **November-December 2026:** the outgoing Republican-led Congress returns for a lame-duck session. Baker McKenzie noted Congress was in recess until the week after Election Day.
- **Noon, Jan 3, 2027:** under the 20th Amendment, the terms of newly elected senators and representatives begin, and Congress meets that day unless it sets another date by law. Democrats then take committee chairs.
- **Through 2027:** expect hearings, S. 5390 or a successor bill, and appropriations fights. Any tariff repeal still faces a veto.

For the market reaction to the vote itself, see [when US midterm results reached Southeast Asian trading hours](https://bullquill.com/us-midterm-results-time-southeast-asia/), and for how the White House has adjusted tariffs case by case, Bullquill's report on [Trump's exemptions for Canadian imports](https://bullquill.com/trump-exempts-canadian-imports-tariffs-collins/). More coverage is collected on the [Tariffs](https://bullquill.com/tag/tariffs/) and [ASEAN](https://bullquill.com/tag/asean/) topic pages.

## What it means

For exporters and investors across Southeast Asia, the midterm result changes the politics of US tariffs more than the rates. The Section 301 duties of 10% and 12.5% have a legal basis that Congress cannot remove without the president's agreement or a supermajority it does not have. Baker McKenzie's advice to clients is to plan for persistent elevated tariffs and to preserve refund rights.

The variables worth tracking are the ones that can move without a veto fight: rulings from the Court of International Trade, any USTR finding in the excess-capacity probe, product exclusions, and whether hearings in early 2027 draw enough Republican support to make carve-outs politically easier. The 2.5-point gap between Vietnam and Thailand on one side and Malaysia and Indonesia on the other also remains in place unless USTR moves a country between tiers.

## Frequently asked questions

### Can a Democratic Congress repeal Trump's tariffs?

Only with the president's signature or a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override a veto. NBC News projections on Nov 4, 2026 gave Democrats 54 Senate seats and 258 House seats, short of the 67 and up to 290 votes an override would require.

### What US tariff rates do ASEAN countries pay after the Supreme Court IEEPA ruling?

Since July 24, 2026, Section 301 forced-labour duties of 12.5% apply to Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore, and 10% to Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia, generally on top of normal MFN duties. Goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs are excluded.

### What is the End Trump's Tariff Tax Act?

S. 5390, introduced by Senator Chuck Schumer on Sept 14, 2026, would end the Section 301 forced-labour duties, repeal Section 122 and Section 338 tariff powers, and require automatic refunds with interest within 30 days of enactment. It would still need the president's signature or a veto override.

### When does the new US Congress take office?

Under the 20th Amendment, the terms of members elected on Nov 3, 2026 begin at noon on Jan 3, 2027, and Congress meets that day unless it sets another date by law.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.